关键词: 区域创新能力, 经济发展水平, 时空演变, 耦合协调, VAR模型, 泰尔指数

Abstract: The study uses factor analysis, coupled coordination degree model, the Theil index, vector autoregression model, and other methods, and combines geographic spatial expressions to make a specific analysis of the coordinated benefits of China’s regional innovation capacity and economic development level as well as the dynamic evolution process of the two from 2002 to 2020. The results found that: 1) From 2002 to 2020, China’s regional innovation capacity and economic development level showed a synchronous growth trend, and the coupling coordination changed from weak to strong, roughly going through a temporal evolution process of “lagging coordination (2002-2006) → coordinated transition (2008-2010) → coordinated development (2012-2020) ”, showing the stage characteristics of tending to high-quality coordination transition. 2) Spatially, the degree of coupling coordination decreases from the coast to the interior, showing obvious characteristics of a step-like distribution. The Theil index fluctuates between 0.033 6 and 0.071 2, with small regional spatial differences and a decreasing trend. The disparity between groups is more significant than the disparity within groups. The intra-group gap and the contribution rate of the eastern and western regions are significantly higher than those of the central and northeastern regions, and both have a stronger influence on the overall geographical differences across the country. 3) There is a long-term stable equilibrium relationship between regional innovation capacity and economic development level, and regional innovation capacity is not the Granger cause of economic development level, but regional innovation capacity has a more significant contribution to China’s economic development level, and its contribution rate to economic development level is over 50%.

Key words: regional innovation capacity, economic development level, spatial and temporal evolution, coupled coordination, VAR model, the Theil index