关键词: 能源足迹, STIRPAT模型, GM(1,1)模型, 驱动因子, 长三角地区

Abstract:

Energy ecological footprint method is a new and important approach for evaluating regional sustainable development. We use energy ecological footprint model, GM(1,1)model, index prediction model, and STIRPAT model to analyze energy footprint in Yangtze River Delta region from 1990 to 2012. The results are given below. 1) The annual growth rate of EEF had reached 7.70% in the past 23 years, and the national energy footprint per capita was less than those of Yangtze River Delta region and the three provinces. As the change rates, the fastest-growing segment was the provincial zone, and the nation was low. 2) VEF appeared the growth trend while EFI showed the decreased trend, and the annual rates were 8.42% and 8.37%, respectively. Yangtze River Delta region and the three provinces were mainly implemented by industrial transformation and upgrade, the nation mainly relied on policy development and technical innovation. 3)EEF and VEF would continue to grow in Yangtze River Delta region but EEI would decline, which shows the harmonious trends. 4) Population, GDP per capita, industrial structure, and technology had great impacts on EEF, and the corresponding coefficients were 0.596,0.073,0.18, and -0.123, respectively.

Key words: energy footprint, STIRPAT model, GM(1,1) model, driving forces, Yangtze River Delta region