收稿日期: 2010-08-03
修回日期: 2010-12-20
网络出版日期: 2011-09-15
基金资助
国家自然科学基金(41071108)、吉林省科技引导计划软科学项目(20100640)和中国科学院东北地理与农业生态研究所前沿领域项目(KZCX3-SW-NA09-07)资助
Scenario prediction for CO2 emissions in 2020 in Jilin province
Received date: 2010-08-03
Revised date: 2010-12-20
Online published: 2011-09-15
张亚欣 , 张平宇 . 吉林省2020年CO2排放情景预测[J]. 中国科学院大学学报, 2011 , 28(5) : 617 -623 . DOI: 10.7523/j.issn.2095-6134.2011.5.008
Using the data of population, GDP, and energy intensity in Jilin province from 1978 to 2009 as input data, we use BP neural network to predict carbon dioxide emissions in 2020 in Jilin province under reference and emission mitigation scenarios. The results show that, if we use carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP in 2005 in Jilin province as a reference, CO2 emissions per GDP in 2020 will be reduced by 55.17% and 58.79% under the two scenarios, respectively. The results also show that, if we use the national average level in 2005 as a reference, CO2 emissions per unit of GDP in 2020 in Jilin province will be reduced by 35.40% and 40.62%, respectively.
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