计算山东1990—2009年的碳排放量,并采用LMDI对其进行因素分析. 结果表明,近20年,CO2排放总量和人均排放量不断上升,万元GDP碳排放呈下降趋势;煤炭消费是碳排放主要来源,第二产业CO2排放量比重最大. 经济增长是碳排放增加的主要因素;能源消费强度影响碳排放增速的变化,其本身又受到产业结构和各产业能耗强度的影响. 能源消费结构的微优化,对碳排放的影响还很小,但已显现出它对碳排放减少的作用.
Main factors responsible for the carbon emissions (CE) in Shandong were analyzed using the LMDI method. We found that CE and CE per capita increased year by year but the CE intensity decreased continuously. Coal consumption from the secondary industry and economic activity was the main driving force. Energy consumption intensity influenced CE and it was affected by the industrial structure and the energy consumption of different industrial sectors. The change in structure of energy consumption has relatively small impact, but it has displayed positive effect on the mitigation of CE.
[1] Cai G T, Zhang L. Progress in China's energy security research[J]. Progress in Geography, 2005, 24(6): 79-87(in Chinese). 蔡国田,张雷.中国能源安全研究进展[J].地理科学进展,2005,24(6):79-87.
[2] Nobuko Y. An analysis of CO2 emissions of Japanese industries during the period between 1985 and 1995[J]. Energy Policy, 2004, 32: 595-610.
[3] Rhee H C, Chung H. Change in CO2 emission and its transmissions between Korea and Japan using international input-output analysis[J]. Ecological Economics, 2006, 58: 788-800.
[4] Bhattacharyya S C, Ussanarassamee A. Decomposition of energy and CO2 intensities of Thai industry between 1981 and 2000[J]. Energy Economics, 2004, 26(5): 765-781.
[5] Guo Y Q,Zheng J Y,Ge Q S.Study on the primary energy-related carbon dioxide emissions in China[J].Geographical Research, 2010(6):1027-1036(in Chinese). 郭义强,郑景云,葛全胜.一次能源消费导致的二氧化碳排放量变化[J].地理研究,2010(6):1027-1036.
[6] Zhao X,Long R Y.Analysis of factors of China's carbon emissions considering the total factor productivity[J]. Resources Science, 2010(10):1863-1870(in Chinese). 赵欣,龙如银.考虑全要素生产率的中国碳排放影响因素分析[J].资源科学,2010(10):1863-1870.
[7] Liu W D,Zhang L,Wang L M, et al. A sketch map of low-carbon economic development in China[J]. Geographical Research, 2010(5):778-788(in Chinese). 刘卫东,张雷,王礼茂,等.中国低碳经济发展框架初步研究[J].地理研究,2010(5):778-788.
[8] Peng J W, Huang X J,Zhong T Y, et al. Decoupling analysis of economic growth and energy carbon emissions in China[J]. Resources Science, 2011(4):626-633(in Chinese). 彭佳雯,黄贤金,钟太洋,等.中国经济增长与能源碳排放的脱钩研究[J].资源科学,2011(4):626-633.
[9] Zhu Y B,Wang Z,Pang L, et al. Simulation on China's economy and prediction on energy consumption and carbon emission under optimal growth path[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2009(8):935-944(in Chinese). 朱永彬,王铮,庞丽,等.基于经济模拟的中国能源消费与碳排放高峰预测[J].地理学报,2009(8):935-944.
[10] Zhao M,Zhang W G,Yu L Z.Carbon emissions from energy consumption in Shanghai city[J]. Research of Environmental Sciences, 2009(8):984-989(in Chinese). 赵敏,张卫国,俞立中.上海市能源消费碳排放分析[J].环境科学研究,2009(8):984-989.
[11] Lin B Q,Jiang Z J. China's carbon dioxide predicted environmental Kuznets curve and influencing factors[J].Management World, 2009(4):27-36(in Chinese). 林伯强,蒋竺均.中国二氧化碳的环境库兹涅茨曲线预测及影响因素分析[J].管理世界,2009(4):27-36.
