收稿日期: 2003-06-06
网络出版日期: 2004-03-19
Evaluation of Annual Prediction of Seismicity Tendency Using Pearson Test
Received date: 2003-06-06
Online published: 2004-03-19
史勇军 , 吴忠良 , 白玲 . 用皮尔逊检验分析年度地震趋势预测结果[J]. 中国科学院大学学报, 2004 , 21(2) : 248 -253 . DOI: 10.7523/j.issn.2095-6134.2004.2.015
Pearson test is applied to the evaluation of the annual prediction of seismicity tendency carried out inChina from 1990 to 2002. Considering the regional difference of seismicity and level of seismological Pgeophysical monitoring, we divide the Chinese mainland into four sub regions : the east, the west, the Yunnan Sichuan region,and Tibetan plateau, in which Tibetan plateau is with extremely-low monitoring capability and is not considered inthe evaluation. It is observed that the three regions, the east, the west, and the Yunnan Sichuan region, have different characteristics. The average probability gain and confidence level for the east is significantly higher than thoseof the west and the Yunnan Sichuan region. The result also shows that in the annual prediction of seismicity tendency carried out at present, the statistics of seismic activity, such as the background probability of earthquakes, playsthe most important role.
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