收稿日期: 2013-10-29
修回日期: 2013-12-23
网络出版日期: 2014-09-15
基金资助
国家重大专项、中国科学院战略性先导科技专项（XDA0505107）、国家生态十年（XDA050501）和国家科技支撑计划（2009BAI78B03）资助
Land-use change process in recent ten years and trend analysis in Changsha in future
Received date: 2013-10-29
Revised date: 2013-12-23
Online published: 2014-09-15
为真实地刻画和揭示长沙市土地利用变化的过程与趋势，利用HJ-CCD及 ETM遥感影像获得长沙市2000—2010年的土地利用变化信息.利用变化幅度和动态度、土地利用转移矩阵和变化趋势指数，定量分析过去10年土地利用空间变化，预测各土地利用类型的变化趋势.结果表明：人工表面空间位置转移不频繁，未来变化趋势为强劲的涨势，扩张可能来自耕地、湿地以及未利用土地的系统性转入；耕地和林地的空间位置转移频繁；耕地的变化趋势为落势，未来流失方向是人工表面；林地变化趋势为落势，流失方向是人工表面和草地，转化为人工表面的可能性更大；草地以净增加为主，来自未利用土地转入的可能性更大；未利用土地以净流失为主特征，流失方向是人工表面.
罗开盛 , 李仁东 . 长沙市近10年土地利用变化过程与未来趋势分析[J]. 中国科学院大学学报, 2014 , 31(5) : 632 -639 . DOI: 10.7523/j.issn.2095-6134.2014.05.008
For truly describing the process and trend of land-use change, HJ-CCD and ETM imagery was used to obtain land-use change information in Changsha in the recent ten years(2000-2010). Then we used models including land-use dynamic model, degree change model, and transition matrix to quantitatively analyze the land-use change process information in Changsha in the ten years. Furthermore, Ps trend index was used to forecast the trend for each type of land-use changes in future. The results are the following. The spatial transfer of the artificial surface is not frequent, and the area will be rapidly expanded due to transfer from farmland. The spatial transfers of farmland and woodland are frequent. Most of farmlands will become artificial surfaces in future. Forestland will transfer most likely to artificial surfaces and also to grass. Grass will expand due to transfer from badland. Badland will continuously become artificial surfaces.
[1] Mertens B, Lambin E F.Land-cover change trajectories in southern Cameroon[J].Ann Assoc Am Geogr, 2000, 90 (3):467-494.
[2] Mertens B, Sunderlin W D, Ndoye T, et al.Impact of macroeconomic change on deforestation in south cameroon: integration of household survey and remotely-sensed data[J].World Dev, 2000, 28 (6): 983-999.
[3] Petit C, Scudder T, Lambin E F. Quantifying qrocesses of land-cover change by remote sensing: resettlement and rapid land-cover changes in southeastern Zambia[J].Int J Remote Sens, 2001, 22(17): 3 435-3 456.
[4] Sun M Q, Zhao C Y, Shi F Z, et al. Analysis on land use change in the mainstream area of the tarim river in recent 20 years[J].Arid Zone Research, 2013, 30(1):16-20(in Chinese). 孙美琴, 赵成义, 施枫芝, 等.近20 a塔里木河干流区土地利用变化特征[J].干旱区研究, 2013, 30(1):16-20.
[5] Zhong K W, Sun C G, Xie L.The dynamic monitoring of land use change in Guangzhou based on GIS[J].Journal of Geo-information Scince, 2009, 11(1): 111-116. 钟凯文, 孙彩歌, 解 靓. 基于GIS 的广州市土地利用遥感动态监测与变化分析[J]. 地球信息科学学报, 2009, 11(1): 111-116.
[6] Zhou S L, Huang J S. Study on division regional land-use structure in the castal area of low mountains and hills in southeastern China: a case study in Wenzhou city[J].Acta PedologicaSinica, 2003, 40(1):37-45. 周生路, 黄劲松.东南沿海低山丘陵区土地利用结构的地域分异研究:以温州市为例[J].土壤学报, 2003, 40(1):37-45.
[7] Liu R, Zhu D L. Methods for detecting land use changes based on the land use transition matrix[J].Resources Science, 2010, 32(8):1 544-1 549(in Chinese). 刘瑞, 朱道林. 基于转移矩阵的土地利用变化信息挖掘方法探讨[J].资源科学, 2010, 32(8):1 544-1 549.
[8] Shi H, Xue J H, Ma W L. Analysis on dynamic degree and transition parameters of land-use type changes in Wuxi city, Jiangsu during 1991-2006[J].Journal of Nanjing Forestry University:Natural Science Edition, 2012, 36(6): 63-68(in Chinese). 侍昊, 薛建辉, 马婉丽. 1991—2006 年无锡市土地利用变化动态度及转换参数分析[J].南京林业大学学报: 自然科学版, 2012, 36(6): 63-68.
[9] Xie Y C, Gong J, Zhao C X, et al. Responses of Oasis ecological service value to land use chang in arid area: a case study Jinta county, Gansu province[J].Research of Soil and water conservation, 2012, 19(2):165-170. 谢余初, 巩杰, 赵彩霞, 等.干旱区绿洲土地利用变化的生态系统服务价值响应:以甘肃省金塔县为例[J].水土保持研究, 2012, 19(2):165-170.
[10] Chen L, Li Z B, Li P, et al. Temporal-spatial land use change of Danjiang and Hanjiang river watershed in Shanxi province[J]. Research of Soil and water conservation, 2011, 31(5):149-152(in Chinese). 陈磊, 李占斌, 李鹏, 等. 陕西省丹汉江流域土地利用时空变化动态分析[J].水土保持研究, 2011, 31(5): 149-152.
[11] Liu J Y, Buheao S E.Study on spatial-temporal feature of land use change in China: using remote sensing techniques[J].Quaternary Sciences, 2000, 20(3): 229-239(in Chinese). 刘纪远, 布和敖斯尔. 中国土地利用变化现代过程时空特征的研究:基于卫星遥感数据[J]. 第四纪研究, 2000, 20(3): 229-239.
[12] Duan Z Q, Zhang F R, Kong X B. Method for information mining of land-use change and it's applicaion[J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering, 2005, 21(12): 60-66(in Chinese). 段增强, 张凤荣, 孔祥斌. 土地利用变化信息挖掘方法及其应用[J].农 业 工 程 学 报, 2005, 21(12):60-66.
[13] Wei X H, Zhang Z X, Hu S G. Random and systematic land use transitions in mountainous area of Beijing[J].Remote Sensing of Land Resource, 2010, 40(7):80-83(in Chinese). 魏显虎, 张增祥, 胡顺光. 北京山区土地利用转移的系统性和随机性[J].国 土 资 源 遥 感, 2010, 40(7):80-83.
[14] Chen J, Gong P, He C, et al.Assessment of the urban development plan of Beijing by using a CA-based urban growth model[J].Photogrammetric Engineering and Remote Sensing, 2002, 68(10): 1 063-1 071.
[15] Bai Z L, Bao A M, Zhao J. Land use/cover changes of Ebinur lake watershed in recent forty years[J].Bulletin of Soil and Water Conservation, 2012, 32(2):173-177(in Chinese). 白泽龙, 包安明, 赵 金. 艾比湖流域近 40 年来土地利用与覆被动态变化研究[J].水土保持通报, 2012, 32(2): 173-177.
/
| 〈 |
|
〉 |
