收稿日期: 2013-09-02
修回日期: 2014-02-21
网络出版日期: 2014-09-15
基金资助
中国科学院知识创新工程重要方向项目（KZCX2-YW-333-2）、教育部人文社会科学青年基金（13YJCZH050）和四川省教育厅科研项目（12ZB127）资助
Dynamic analysis and forecast of ecological footprints and ecological capacity in Liangshan Yi autonomous prefecture in Sichuan province
Received date: 2013-09-02
Revised date: 2014-02-21
Online published: 2014-09-15
刘运伟 , 何仁伟 , 赵亚玲 . 欠发达民族山区生态足迹与生态承载力动态变化及预测分析——以四川凉山彝族自治州为例[J]. 中国科学院大学学报, 2014 , 31(5) : 647 -653 . DOI: 10.7523/j.issn.2095-6134.2014.05.010
Ecological footprints (EF) and ecological capacity (EC) in Liangshan prefecture from 2004 to 2011 were studied by using the ecological footprints model. Ecological footprints and ecological capacity in Liangshan prefecture in future were predicted by using the growth prediction model. Results showed that in Liangshan prefecture the per capital EF increased from 0.506 66 hm2 of 2004 to 0.593 46 hm2 of 2011; the per capital EC increased from 0.873 43 hm2 of 2004 to 0.717 70 hm2 of 2011; and the ecological surplus constantly decreased. The ecological surplus will turn into ecological deficit in 2015, and the ecological deficit will constantly grow. The efforts for realization of sustainable development in Liangshan prefecture are discussed.
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