祁连山冰川消融对地表变形、地应力和断层地震危险性时空变化的影响

孟秋; 胡才博; 石耀霖

doi:10.7523/j.issn.2095-6134.2021.05.006

中国科学院大学学报 >

2021 , Vol. 38 >Issue 5: 624 - 631

DOI: https://doi.org/10.7523/j.issn.2095-6134.2021.05.006

地球科学

祁连山冰川消融对地表变形、地应力和断层地震危险性时空变化的影响

孟秋 ,
胡才博 ,
石耀霖

展开

中国科学院大学地球与行星科学学院中国科学院计算地球动力学重点实验室, 北京 100049

收稿日期: 2019-12-20

修回日期: 2020-02-17

网络出版日期: 2021-09-13

基金资助

国家重点研发计划项目（2016YFB0200801）、国家自然科学基金重大项目（41590865）和联合基金（U1839207）资助

收起

Effects of glacier ablation on surface deformation, stress field, and seismic risk of main faults in Qilian Mountain area

MENG Qiu ,
HU Caibo ,
SHI Yaolin

Expand

Key Laboratory of Computational Geodynamics of Chinese Academy of Sciences, College of Earth and Planetary Sciences, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China

Received date: 2019-12-20

Revised date: 2020-02-17

Online published: 2021-09-13

Fold

摘要

随着全球气候不断变化，祁连山地区广泛存在的现代冰川，可能会进一步消融乃至完全消失，从而引起祁连山地区的地表变形、地应力及断层地震危险性的时空变化。利用自主开发的平面应变黏弹性有限元程序，计算在冰川不断消融引起的地表载荷和两侧地块的构造挤压作用下，1956-2106年共150 a期间，祁连山地区自地表变形、地应力的时空演化。重点关注祁连山地区典型地质剖面的主要断层的正应力、剪应力及库仑应力随时空的变化，定量评估各个断层地震危险性的变化。结果表明，在祁连山冰川不断消融的情况下，祁连山地区地表抬升速率呈现先快速增加后趋于稳定的冰后回弹现象；研究区域的水平应力、垂直应力及剪应力在冰川载荷卸载和边界构造加载的双重作用发生显著变化；大柴旦-宗务隆山断裂、哈拉湖南山断裂和哈拉湖盆地北缘断裂库仑应力变化持续增大，未来地震危险性增强；阴凹槽断裂和祁连山北缘断裂库仑应力增加很小，反映了在冰川融化影响不大、仅仅在构造应力增加为主的情况下，地震危险性随时间增加是缓慢的。

关键词： 有限元; 黏弹性; 地震危险性; 祁连山; 冰川

本文引用格式

孟秋 , 胡才博 , 石耀霖 . 祁连山冰川消融对地表变形、地应力和断层地震危险性时空变化的影响[J]. 中国科学院大学学报, 2021 , 38(5) : 624 -631 . DOI: 10.7523/j.issn.2095-6134.2021.05.006

Abstract

With the continuous development of global climate change, the widespread modern glaciers may further melt or even completely disappear, resulting in the temporal and spatial changes of surface deformation, stress, and fault seismic risk in Qilian Mountains. In this paper, a plane-strain viscoelastic finite element program was developed to calculate the spatial and temporal evolution of surface deformation and ground stress in Qilian Mountains during the 150-year period from 1956 to 2106 under the surface load caused by glacier melting and the continuous tectonic compression. We calculated the normal stress, shear stress, and the change of Coulomb stress on the main faults in Qilian Mountains. The changes of seismic risk on each fault were quantitatively estimated. The surface uplift rate of Qilian Mountains is controlled by the ice rebound. The surface uplift rapidly increase at the beginning and then tends to be stable under the continuous melting of Qilian Mountains glacier. The horizontal stress, vertical stress, and shear stress change obviously under the effects of glacier melting and boundary tectonic loading. The Coulomb stress changes ΔCFS of the DZF, HSF, and HNF continuously increase, and the seismic risk increases in the future. Coulomb stress changes on the YAF and QNF faults are very small, and the seismicity seismic risk changes little. The numerical simulation provides a theoretical reference for understanding the spatial and temporal variation of future earthquake risk in Qilian Mountains under the glacier melting and tectonic loading.

Key words： finite element model; visco-elasticity; seismic risk; Qilian Mountains; glacier

参考文献

[1] Dobrowolski A B.Historia naturalna lodu[M].Warszawa:Wyd kasa im Mianowskiego, 1923.
[2] Cossart E, Mercier D, Decaulne A, et al. Impacts of post-glacial rebound on landslide spatial distribution at a regional scale in northern Iceland (Skagafjörður)[J]. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms, 2014, 39(3):336-350.
[3] Sun M P, Liu S Y, Yao X J, et al. Glacier changes in the Qilian Mountains in the past half-century:based on the revised First and Second Chinese Glacier Inventory[J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2019, 28(2):206-220.
[4] Yao T D, Thompson T, Yang W, et al. Different glacier status with atmospheric circulations in Tibetan Plateau and surroundings[J]. Nature Climate Change, 2012, 2:663-667.
[5] Ding B H, Yang K, Yang W, et al. Development of a water and enthalpy budger-based glacier mass balance model (WEB-GM) and its preliminary validation[J]. Water Resources Research, 2017, 53:1-33.
[6] 杨威, 周尚哲, Chiyuki N, 等.祁连山中段新冰期以来的冰川序列及环境变化[J]. 兰州大学学报(自然科学版), 2006, 42(6):12-15.
[7] Zhu M H, Yao T D, Yang W, et al. Energy- and mass-balance comparison between Zhadang and Parlung No.4 glaciers on the Tibetan Plateau[J]. Journal of Glaciology, 2015, 61(227):595-607.
[8] Yu W S, Yao T D, Kang S C, et al. Different region climate regimes and topography affect the changes in area and mass balance of glaciers on the north and south slopes of the same glacierized massif (the West Nyainqentanglha Range, Tibetan Plateau)[J]. Journal of Hydrology, 2013, 495:64-73.
[9] 葛伟鹏, 王敏, 沈正康, 等. 柴达木-祁连山地块内部震间上地壳块体运动特征与形变模式研究[J]. 地球物理学报, 2013, 56(9), 2994-3010.
[10] 刘杰. 基于GPS和水准数据的微粒群算法联合反演祁连山北缘断裂三维滑动速率[J]. 大地测量与地球动力学, 2019, 39(9):906-909.
[11] 姜佳佳, 张辉. 祁连山地震带强震前M_L4.0地震活动特征研究[J]. 数字地震观测与预报新方法及新技术, 2018, 2(8):79-80.
[12] 姜佳佳, 张辉, 窦喜英, 等. 祁连山地震带及阿尔金地区M_S ≥ 4地震活动增强研究[J]. 国际地震动态, 2019, 2(8):72-73.
[13] 刘小凤, 梅秀苹, 冯建刚, 等. 青藏高原北部地区地震基本活动状态定量评价[J]. 西北地震学报, 2011, 33(2):130-136.
[14] 刑武成, 李忠勤, 张慧, 等. 1959年来中国天山冰川资源时空变化[J]. 地理学报, 2017, 72(9):1594-1605.
[15] Liu C, Linde A T, Sacks I S. Slow earthquakes triggered by typhoons[J]. Nature, 2009, 459:833-836.
[16] Bettinelli P, Avouac J P, Flouzat M, et al. Seasonal variations of seismicity and geodetic strain in the Himalaya induced by surface hydrology[J]. Earth and Planet Science Letters, 2008, 266:332-344.
[17] Bollinger L, Perrier F, Avouac J P, et al. Seasonal modulation of seismicity in the Himalaya of Nepal[J]. Geophysical Research Letters, 2007, 34:L08304.
[18] 庞亚瑾, 张怀, 程惠红, 等.华北地区地下水开采对地壳应力的影响[J].地球物理学报, 2016, 59(4):1394-1402.
[19] 程惠红, 郑亮, 张贝, 等.评"紫坪铺水库造成孔隙弹性耦合变化及其对2008年汶川地震触发作用"二维模拟的局限性[J].地球物理学报, 2015, 58(4):1458-1461.
[20] 程惠红, 张怀, 石耀霖.关于紫坪铺水库蓄水是否与汶川地震有关的影响因素综合分析[J].地球物理学报, 2015, 58(4):1220-1235.
[21] 孙玉军, 张怀, 董树文, 等.利用三维孔隙弹性模型探讨紫坪铺水库对汶川地震的影响[J].地球物理学报, 2012, 55(7):2253-2361.
[22] 程惠红, 张怀, 石耀霖. M_S7.0芦山地震的发生与水库有关吗?[J]科技导报, 2013, 31(31):31-37.
[23] 程惠红, 张怀, 朱伯靖, 等. 卡里巴水库蓄水引起库区应力场变化影响分析[J]. 地震, 2013, 33(4):32-42.
[24] Albaric J, Oye V, Langet N, et al. Monitoring of induced seismicity during the first geothermal reservoir stimulation at Paralana. Australia[J]. Geothermics, 2014, 52:120-131.
[25] Zang A, Oye V, Jousset P, et al. Analysis of induced seismicity in geothermal reservoirs:an overview[J]. Geothermics, 2014, 52:6-21.
[26] Grigoli F, Cesca S, Rinaldi A P, et al. The novermber 2017 M_W5.5 Pohang earthquake:a possible case of induced seismicity in South Korea[J]. Science, 2018, 360(6392):1003-1006.
[27] Kim K H, Ree J H, Kim Y H, et al. Assessing whether the 2017 M_W5.4 Pohang earthquake in South Korea was an induced event[J]. Science, 2018, 360(6392):1007-1009.
[28] Keranen K M, Weingarten M, Abers G A, et al. Sharp increase in central Oklahoma seismicity since 2008 induced by massive wastewater injection[J]. Science, 2014, 345:448-451.
[29] Walsh F R, Zoback M D. Oklahoma's recent earthquakes and saltwater disposal[J]. Research article, 2015, e1500195:1-9.
[30] Freed A M, Lin J. Time-dependent changes in failure stress following thrust earthquakes[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research, 1998, 103:24393-24409.
[31] Freed A M, Lin J. Delayed triggering of the 1999 Hector Mine earthquake by viscoelastic stress transfer[J]. Nature, 2001, 411:180-183.
[32] Freed A M, Lin J. Accelerated stress buildup on the southern San Andreas fault and surrounding regions caused by Mojave Desert earthquakes[J]. Geology, 2002, 30:571-574.
[33] Wiseman K, Burgmann R, Freed A M. Viscoelastic relaxation in a heterogeneous Earth following the 2004 Sumatra-Andaman earthquake[J]. Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 2015, 431:308-317.
[34] 沈正康, 万永革, 甘卫军, 等. 华北强震序列中积累应力变化场演化及地震发生研究[C]//中国地球物理学会第十九届年会论文集.南京, 2003:276.
[35] Hu Y, Wang K, He J, Klotz J, et al. Three-dimensional viscoelastic finite element model for postseismic deformation of the great 1960 Chile earthquake[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research, 2004, 109, B12403.
[36] Luo G, Liu M. Stress evolution and fault interactions before and after the 2008 Great Wenchuan earthquake[J]. Tectonophysics, 2010, 491:127-140.
[37] Peltier W R. Ice age paleotopography[J]. Science, 1994, 265:195-201.
[38] Stewart I S, Sauber J, Rose J. Glacio-seismotectonics:ice sheets, crustal deformation and seismicity[J]. Quaternary Science Reviews, 2000, 19:1367-1389.
[39] Wahr J, Velicogna I. What might GRACE contribute to studies of post glacial rebound[J]. Space Science Reviews, 2003, 108(1):319-330.
[40] Wang H S, Jia L L, Steffen H, et al. Increased water storaage in North America and Scandinavia from GRACE gravity data[J]. Nature Geoscience, 2013, 6(1):38-42.
[41] Dietrich R, Ivins E R, Casassa G, et al. Rapid crustal uplift in Patagonia due to enhanced ice loss[J]. Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 2010, 289(1/2):22-19.
[42] Zheng G, Wang H, Wright T J, et al. Crustal Deformation in the India-Eurasia Collision Zone From 25 Years of GPS Measurements[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research:Solid Earth, 2017, 122(11):9290-9312.
[43] 李虹蓉, 杨太保, 田洪阵, 等. 1987-2015年祁连山冰川退缩及未来变化趋势研究[J]. 安徽农业科学, 2017, 45(30):59-63.
[44] Zhang H P, Zhang P Z, Prush V, et al. Tectonic geomorphology of the Qilian Shan in the northeastern Tibetan Plateau:insights into the plateau formation processes[J]. Tectonophysics, 2017, 706-707:103-115.
[45] Hu C B, Cai Y E, Wang Z M.Effects of large historical earthquakes, viscous relaxation, and tectonic loading on the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research, 2012, 117:B06410.
[46] Grollimund B, Zoback M D. Post glacial lithospheric flexure and induced stresses and pore pressure changes in the northern North Sea[J]. Tectonophysics, 2000, 327:61-81.
[47] Gardner A S, Moholdt G, Cogley J G, et al. A reconciled estimate of glacier contributions to sea level rise:2003 to 2009[J]. Science, 2012, 340:852-857.
[48] Oppenheimer D H, Reasenberg P A, Simpson R W. Fault plane solution for the 1984 Morgan Hill, California, earthquake sequence:Evidence for the state of stress on the Calaveras Fault[J]. Journal of geophysical research, 1988, 93(B8):9007-9026.
[49] Harris R A. 1998. Introduction to special section:Stress triggers, stress shadows, and Implications for seismic hazard[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research, 1998, 103(B10):25,347-24,358.
[50] 刘峡, 黄立人, 杨国华,等. 北祁连-河西走廊地区垂直形变与构造应力场关系的初步研究:三维有限元拟合结果分析[J]. 地震地质, 2003, 25(2):307-316.
[51] 梁诗明. 基于GPS观测的青藏高原现今三维地壳运动研究[D]. 北京:中国地震局地质研究所, 2014.
[52] Luo G, Liu M. Stressing rates and seismicity on the major faults in Eastern Tibetan Plateau[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research:Solid Earth, 2018, 123(12):10968-10986.
[53] 张贝, 程惠红, 石耀霖. 2015年4月25日尼泊尔M_S8.1大地震的同震效应[J]. 地球物理学报, 2015, 58(5):1794-1803.
[54] 任天翔, 程惠红, 张贝, 等. 2001年昆仑山口西M_S8.1地震对周围断层的应力影响数值分析[J]. 地球物理学报, 2018, 61(12):4938-4850.

Options

文章导航

摘要

本文引用格式

Abstract

参考文献

访问统计

联系我们

模态框（Modal）标题

摘要

本文引用格式

Abstract

参考文献

访问统计

联系我们