欢迎访问中国科学院大学学报,今天是
地球科学

基于快速多维经验模态分解的北半球冬季近地表气温和积雪覆盖频率变化趋势提取

  • 刘权 ,
  • 姚凤梅
展开
  • 中国科学院大学地球与行星科学学院, 北京 100049

收稿日期: 2021-03-11

  修回日期: 2021-04-13

  网络出版日期: 2021-04-13

基金资助

中国科学院先导专项(No.XDA19030402)和国家自然科学基金(42071425)资助

Untangling of northern midaltitude near surface air temperature and snow cover frequency trends with multidimensional ensemble empirical mode decomposition

  • LIU Quan ,
  • YAO Fengmei
Expand
  • College of Earth and Planetary Sciences, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China

Received date: 2021-03-11

  Revised date: 2021-04-13

  Online published: 2021-04-13

摘要

北极正在以全球平均水平2倍的速度变暖,而北半球中纬度冬季出现明显的变冷趋势。这种异常的气候模式受到广泛关注。使用改进的快速多维经验模态分解方法,提取北半球中纬度近地表气温和积雪覆盖频率的长期趋势和变化率。从累积变化趋势来看,自1990年代开始,亚欧大陆中部地区变冷,西伯利亚高压增强,积雪覆盖频率增大;但从变化速率来看,欧亚大陆中部的快速变冷和积雪覆盖频率的快速增加主要发生在1990—2000年代,之后变率趋缓。因此,随着变化率进一步降低,北半球中纬度冬季的快速变冷可能发展为一个短期而非长期趋势。本研究展示的近地表气温和积雪覆盖频率趋势的演化过程,对探究北半球中纬度变冷的成因有重要意义。

本文引用格式

刘权 , 姚凤梅 . 基于快速多维经验模态分解的北半球冬季近地表气温和积雪覆盖频率变化趋势提取[J]. 中国科学院大学学报, 2023 , 40(2) : 191 -202 . DOI: 10.7523/j.ucas.2021.0060

Abstract

The Arctic has warmed more rapidly than the globe as a whole, while the northern midlatitudes have experienced more frequent severe winters. The anomalous climate pattern has drawn wide attentions. Here we improved the method fast multidimensional ensemble empirical mode decomposition (Fast-MEEMD) to extract the long-term trends of near surface air temperature (SAT) and snow cover frequency (SCF). The results show evident "warming arctic-cooling continent (WACC)" pattern. From the perspective of cumulative change, SAT over central Eurasia has decreased, the Siberia High has amplified and the SCF over Eastern Asian has increased since 1990s. while in term of changing rate, this accelerated cooling tendency over midlatitudes is mainly occurred between 1990s-2000s. Therefore, the cooling trends may develop as short rather than long-term trends. The study provides new materials to evaluate the roles of other factors in driving midlatitudes cooling.

参考文献

[1] Clement A, DiNezio P. Climate change. The tropical Pacific Ocean:back in the driver's seat?[J]. Science, 2014, 343(6174):976-978.DOI:10.1126/science.1248115.
[2] Cohen J, Screen J A, Furtado J C, et al. Recent Arctic amplification and extreme mid-latitude weather[J]. Nature Geoscience, 2014, 7(9):627-637.DOI:10.1038/nge02234.
[3] Immerzeel W W, van Beek L P H, Bierkens M F P. Climate change will affect the Asian water towers[J]. Science, 2010, 328(5984):1382-1385.DOI:10.1126/science.1183188.
[4] Clem K R, Fogt R L, Turner J, et al. Record warming at the South Pole during the past three decades[J]. Nature Climate Change, 2020, 10(8):762-770.DOI:10.1038/s41558-020-0815-2.
[5] Palmer T. Record-breaking winters and global climate change[J]. Science, 2014, 344(6186):803-804.DOI:10.1126/science.1255147.
[6] Hopsch S, Cohen J, Dethloff K. Analysis of a link between fall Arctic Sea ice concentration and atmospheric patterns in the following winter[J]. Tellus A:Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography, 2012, 64(1):18624.DOI:10.3402/tellusa.v64i0.18624.
[7] Tang Q H, Zhang X J, Yang X H, et al. Cold winter extremes in northern continents linked to Arctic Sea ice loss[J]. Environmental Research Letters, 2013, 8(1):014036.DOI:10.1088/1748-9326/8/1/014036.
[8] Kim B M, Son S W, Min S K, et al. Weakening of the stratospheric polar vortex by Arctic Sea-ice loss[J]. Nature Communications, 2014, 5:4646.DOI:10.1038/ncomms5646.
[9] Cohen J, Barlow M, Saito K. Decadal fluctuations in planetary wave forcing modulate global warming in late boreal winter[J]. Journal of Climate, 2009, 22(16):4418-4426.DOI:10.1175/2009jcli2931.1.
[10] Zhang J K, Tian W S, Chipperfield M P, et al. Persistent shift of the Arctic polar vortex towards the Eurasian continent in recent decades[J]. Nature Climate Change, 2016, 6(12):1094-1099.DOI:10.1038/nclimate3136.
[11] Mori M, Watanabe M, Shiogama H, et al. Robust Arctic Sea-ice influence on the frequent Eurasian cold winters in past decades[J]. Nature Geoscience, 2014, 7(12):869-873.DOI:10.1038/ngeo2277.
[12] Luo D H, Chen X D, Overland J, et al. Weakened potential vorticity barrier linked to recent winter Arctic Sea ice loss and midlatitude cold extremes[J]. Journal of Climate, 2019, 32(14):4235-4261.DOI:10.1175/jcli-d-18-0449.1.
[13] Cohen J L, Furtado J C, Barlow M A, et al. Arctic warming, increasing snow cover and widespread boreal winter cooling[J]. Environmental Research Letters, 2012, 7(1):014007.DOI:10.1088/1748-9326/7/1/014007.
[14] Liu J P, Curry J A, Wang H J, et al. Impact of declining Arctic Sea ice on winter snowfall[J]. Proceeding of the National Academy of Sciences of the Ointed States of America, 2012, 109(11):6781-6783.DOI:10.1073/pnas.1114910109.
[15] Mudryk L R, Kushner P J, Derksen C. Interpreting observed Northern Hemisphere snow trends with large ensembles of climate simulations[J]. Climate Dynamics, 2014, 43(1/2):345-359.DOI:10.1007/s00382-013-1954-y.
[16] 周强, 王世新, 周艺, 等. MODIS亚像元积雪覆盖率提取方法[J]. 中国科学院研究生院学报, 2009, 26(3):383-388.DOI:10.7523/j.issn.2095-6134.2009.3.013.
[17] Bulygina O N, Razuvaev V N, Korshunova N N. Changes in snow cover over Northern Eurasia in the last few decades[J]. Environmental Research Letters, 2009, 4(4):045026.DOI:10.1088/1748-9326/4/4/045026.
[18] Groisman P Y, Karl T R, Knight R W. Observed impact of snow cover on the heat balance and the rise of continental spring temperatures[J]. Science, 1994, 263(5144):198-200.DOI:10.1126/science.2635144.198.
[19] Cohen J, Pfeiffer K, Francis J A. Warm Arctic episodes linked with increased frequency of extreme winter weather in the United States[J]. Nature Communications, 2018, 9:869.DOI:10.1038/s41467-018-02992-9.
[20] Overland J, Francis J A, Hall R, et al. The melting Arctic and midlatitude weather patterns:are they connected?[J]. Journal of Climate, 2015, 28(20):7917-7932.DOI:10.1175/jcli-d-14-00822.1.
[21] Cohen J, Zhang X, Francis J, et al. Divergent consensuses on Arctic amplification influence on midlatitude severe winter weather[J]. Nature Climate Change, 2020, 10(1):20-29.DOI:10.1038/s41558-019-0662-y.
[22] Pithan F, Svensson G, Caballero R, et al. Role of air-mass transformations in exchange between the Arctic and mid-latitudes[J]. Nature Geoscience, 2018, 11(11):805-812.DOI:10.1038/s41561-018-0234-1.
[23] Blackport R, Screen J A, van der Wiel K, et al. Minimal influence of reduced Arctic Sea ice on coincident cold winters in mid-latitudes[J]. Nature Climate Change, 2019, 9(9):697-704.DOI:10.1038/s41558-019-0551-4.
[24] Yao Y, Luo D H, Dai A G, et al. Increased quasi stationarity and persistence of winter Ural blocking and Eurasian extreme cold events in response to Arctic warming. part I:insights from observational analyses[J]. Journal of Climate, 2017, 30(10):3549-3568.DOI:10.1175/jcli-d-16-0261.1.
[25] Luo D H, Xiao Y Q, Yao Y, et al. Impact of Ural blocking on winter warm Arctic-cold Eurasian anomalies. part I:blocking-induced amplification[J]. Journal of Climate, 2016, 29(11):3925-3947.DOI:10.1175/jcli-d-15-0611.1.
[26] Xie Y K, Wu G X, Liu Y M, et al. Eurasian cooling linked with Arctic Warming:insights from PV dynamics[J]. Journal of Climate, 2020, 33(7):2627-2644.DOI:10.1175/jcli-d-19-0073.1.
[27] Screen J A, Blackport R. Is sea-ice-driven Eurasian cooling too weak in models?[J]. Nature Climate Change, 2019, 9(12):934-936.DOI:10.1038/s41558-019-0635-1.
[28] Blackport R, Screen J A. Insignificant effect of Arctic amplification on the amplitude of midlatitude atmospheric waves[J]. Science Advances, 2020, 6(8):eaay2880.DOI:10.1126/sciadv.aay2880.
[29] Fyfe J C. Midlatitudes unaffected by sea ice loss[J]. Nature Climate Change, 2019, 9(9):649-650.DOI:10.1038/s41558-019-0560-3.
[30] Screen J A, Deser C, Smith D M, et al. Consistency and discrepancy in the atmospheric response to Arctic Sea-ice loss across climate models[J]. Nature Geoscience, 2018, 11(3):155-163.DOI:10.1038/s41561-018-0059-y.
[31] Overland J E, Dethloff K, Francis J A, et al. Nonlinear response of mid-latitude weather to the changing Arctic[J]. Nature Climate Change, 2016, 6(11):992-999.DOI:10.1038/nclimate3121.
[32] Blackport R, Screen J A. Weakened evidence for mid-latitude impacts of Arctic warming[J]. Nature Climate Change, 2020, 10(12):1065-1066.DOI:10.1038/s41558-020-00954-y.
[33] Mori M, Kosaka Y, Watanabe M, et al. A reconciled estimate of the influence of Arctic Sea-ice loss on recent Eurasian cooling[J]. Nature Climate Change, 2019, 9(2):123-129.DOI:10.1038/s41558-018-0379-3.
[34] Wu Z H, Huang N E, Wallace J M, et al. On the time-varying trend in global-mean surface temperature[J]. Climate Dynamics, 2011, 37(3):759.DOI:10.1007/s00382-011-1128-8.
[35] Feng J X, Wu Z H, Liu G S. Fast multidimensional ensemble empirical mode decomposition using a data compression technique[J]. Journal of Climate, 2014, 27(10):3492-3504.DOI:10.1175/jcli-d-13-00746.1.
[36] Ji F, Wu Z H, Huang J P, et al. Evolution of land surface air temperature trend[J]. Nature Climate Change, 2014, 4(6):462-466.DOI:10.1038/jclimate2223.
[37] Min S K, Zhang X B, Zwiers F W, et al. Human contribution to more-intense precipitation extremes[J]. Nature, 2011, 470(7334):378-381.DOI:10.1038/nature09763.
[38] Chen C S, Jeng Y. Two-dimensional nonlinear geophysical data filtering using the multidimensional EEMD method[J]. Journal of Applied Geophysics, 2014, 111:256-270.DOI:10.1016/j.jappgeo.2014.10.015.
[39] Zhang Z Y, Zha H Y. Principal manifolds and nonlinear dimensionality reduction via tangent space alignment[J]. Journal of Shanghai University (English Edition), 2004, 8(4):406-424.DOI:10.1007/s11741-004-0051-1.
[40] Wu Z H, Huang N E, Long S R, et al. On the trend, detrending, and variability of nonlinear and nonstationary time series[J]. Proceeding of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2007, 104(38):14889-14894.DOI:10.1073/pnas.0701020104.
[41] Flandrin P, Rilling G, Goncalves P. Empirical mode decomposition as a filter bank[J]. IEEE Signal Processing Letters, 2004, 11(2):112-114.DOI:10.1109/LSP.2003.821662.
[42] Franzke C. Multi-scale analysis of teleconnection indices:Climate noise and nonlinear trend analysis[J]. Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 2009, 16(1):65-76.DOI:10.5194/npg-16-65-2009.
[43] Inoue J, Hori M E, Takaya K. The role of Barents Sea ice in the wintertime cyclone track and emergence of a warm-Arctic cold-Siberian anomaly[J]. Journal of Climate, 2012, 25(7):2561-2568.DOI:10.1175/jcli-d-11-00449.1.
[44] Brown R D. Northern hemisphere snow cover variability and change, 1915-97[J]. Journal of Climate, 2000, 13(13):2339-2355.DOI:10.1175/1520-0442(2000)013<2339:nhscva>2.0.co;2.
[45] Kosaka Y, Xie S P. Recent global-warming hiatus tied to equatorial Pacific surface cooling[J]. Nature, 2013, 501(7467):403-407.DOI:10.1038/nature12534.
[46] Cohen J L, Furtado J C, Barlow M, et al. Asymmetric seasonal temperature trends[J]. Geophysical Research Letters, 2012, 39(4):L04705.DOI:10.1029/2011gl050582.
[47] Luo D H, Xiao Y Q, Diao Y N, et al. Impact of Ural blocking on winter warm Arctic-cold Eurasian anomalies. part II:The link to the North Atlantic Oscillation[J]. Journal of Climate, 2016, 29(11):3949-3971.DOI:10.1175/jcli-d-15-0612.1.
[48] Sun L T, Perlwitz J, Hoerling M. What caused the recent "Warm Arctic, Cold Continents" trend pattern in winter temperatures?[J]. Geophysical Research Letters, 2016, 43(10):5345-5352.DOI:10.1002/2016gl069024.
[49] Zappa G, Ceppi P, Shepherd T G. Eurasian cooling in response to Arctic Sea-ice loss is not proved by maximum covariance analysis[J]. Nature Climate Change, 2021, 11(2):106-108.DOI:10.1038/s41558-020-00982.-8.
[50] Barnes E A, Screen J A. The impact of Arctic warming on the midlatitude jet-stream:Can it? Has it? Will it?[J]. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews:Climate Change, 2015, 6(3):277-286.DOI:10.1002/wcc.337.
[51] McCusker K E, Fyfe J C, Sigmond M. Twenty-five winters of unexpected Eurasian cooling unlikely due to Arctic Sea-ice loss[J]. Nature Geoscience, 2016, 9(11):838-842.DOI:10.1038/nge02820.
文章导航

/