基于时空因子驱动的故宫古建筑火灾风险评估方法
收稿日期: 2024-05-13
修回日期: 2024-10-11
网络出版日期: 2024-12-23
基金资助
国家重点研发计划项目(2021YFC1523503)
Fire risk assessment method for ancient buildings in the Palace Museum based on spatio-temporal factors
Received date: 2024-05-13
Revised date: 2024-10-11
Online published: 2024-12-23
基于故宫古建筑的时间特性和空间特征，结合风险管理理论，综合考虑致灾因子危险性、承灾体敏感性、损失控制性等因素，构建故宫古建筑火灾风险因子数据集。利用熵加权的TOPSIS算法构建古建筑火灾风险指数计算模型获取古建筑间的相对火灾风险，并基于2014—2019年月度故宫时空因子数据进行古建筑火灾风险评估。结果表明，故宫火灾综合风险指数分布在0.23~0.58，中轴线区域上的火灾综合风险高于其他分区且高风险等级的古建筑数量在7、8月最多；危险性和敏感性指数在中轴线区域以及西北和东北区较高，控制性指数在中轴线区域的中部和南部以及西北和东北区的中心区域较高，这分别意味着它们暴露于火灾的危险程度高，受到火灾扰动影响的程度大，但在受到火灾扰动后的响应和应对能力强。结合GIS形成的故宫单体古建筑的时间序列火灾综合风险地图，可以为相关部门制定古建筑火灾管理规划以及资源重点配置提供信息指导。
雷雅婷 , 沈占锋 , 杨欣慰 , 王波 , 刘瑾洲 , 寇雯齐 , 张弛 . 基于时空因子驱动的故宫古建筑火灾风险评估方法[J]. 中国科学院大学学报, 2026 , 43(4) : 507 -518 . DOI: 10.7523/j.ucas.2024.075
Fire poses the greatest threat to the cultural heritage of timber buildings. The fire risk assessment of ancient buildings in the Palace Museum， the world’s largest remaining ancient palace complex， aids in the management， protection， and fire prevention efforts of the heritage site. This study constructed a dataset of fire risk factors， taking into account the hazard of causal factors， the sensitivity of disaster-bearing bodies， and loss control lability， reflecting the temporal and spatial characteristics of the Palace Museum’s ancient buildings. Utilizing the entropy-weighted TOPSIS algorithm， a fire risk index calculation model was developed to determine the relative fire risk among ancient buildings. This assessment was performed using the monthly spatio-temporal factor data of the Palace Museum from 2014 to 2019. The findings reveal that the comprehensive fire risk index of the Palace Museum ranges from 0.23 to 0.58， with the central axis area exhibiting the highest fire risk， especially in July and August. Hazard and sensitivity indices are higher in the central axis， northwestern， and northeastern zones， whereas the control index is higher in the central and southern parts of the central axis area as well as in the northwestern and northeastern zones. These areas are thus more susceptible to fire hazards， more impacted by fire disturbances， and possess a stronger response and coping capacity post-disturbance. In conjunction with GIS， the comprehensive time-series fire risk map of individual ancient buildings in the Palace Museum offers valuable insights for relevant departments to develop fire management plans and allocate resources for ancient buildings.
Key words： ancient buildings; fire; risk assessment; entropy weight method; GIS; spatio-temporal factors
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