随着我国不同地区常住人口增减分化趋势日益明显,传统“增长导向”下的基本公共服务供给模式正面临深刻调整。本文在识别我国2000-2020年人口收缩地区的基础上,构建基本公共服务供给水平测度指标体系,测度并分析其差异化演变特征及影响因素。结果表明：①我国出现人口收缩的地级行政区数量增多,人口收缩程度加深,大致呈现北高南低态势。②人口收缩地区基本公共服务供给水平总体提升,但不同人口收缩地区基本公共服务供给水平增幅分异呈扩大态势,东北人口收缩地区基本公共服务供给水平增幅分化最为明显;人口收缩地区不同维度基本公共服务供给水平协同改善的态势减弱。③经济、人口因素持续作用于人口收缩地区基本公共服务供给水平的差异化演变,空间因素的作用减弱,地方政府面对人口变动的响应能力对基本公共服务供给水平分化的影响开始显现。针对基本公共服务供给停滞型和提升型人口收缩地区,本文分别提出了相应的治理思路。
As the trend of population growth and decline across regions in China becomes increasingly pronounced, the traditional "growth-oriented" model of basic public service supply is undergoing profound adjustments. Based on identifying population-shrinking areas in China from 2000 to 2020, this study constructs an index system for basic public service supply, measures its levels, and analyzes its differentiated evolution characteristics and influencing factors. The results show that: ①The number of prefecture-level administrative regions experiencing population shrinkage in China has increased, the degree of population shrinkage has deepened, and the pattern roughly shows higher levels in the north and lower levels in the south. ②The overall level of basic public service supply in population-shrinking areas has improved, but the increase in service levels varies across regions. Northeastern population-shrinking areas exhibit the most significant differentiation in the increase of basic public service supply levels, and the trend of coordinated improvement across different dimensions of basic public service supply has weakened. ③Economic and demographic factors continue to exert influence on the differentiated evolution of basic public service supply levels in population-shrinking areas, while the influence of spatial factors has diminished. The responsiveness of local governments to population changes has started to affect the differentiation of basic public service supply levels. Based on the patterns of stagnation and improvement in basic public service supply in population-shrinking areas, this study proposes corresponding governance strategies.
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