在分析铁路这一特殊承灾体成灾机理和致灾因子的基础上,应用灰色理论和数理统计,对铁路环境水害危险度计算模型进行了深入探讨和构建。以新亚欧大陆桥新疆段(以下简称为 陆桥新疆段 )3 9年(1 95 9～ 1 997年)的水害资料为统计分析数据,以水害频次、水害密度和断道时间为铁路环境水害危险度计算和危险性评估指标,根据灰色关联分析原理,确定出水害密度、断道时间和水害频次在危险性评估中的权重依次为:5、3、2。然后,基于水害密度、水害频次和断道时间三指标的内在联系,以及权重的大小,以沿线三级车站之间的区段为对比分析单元,构建出铁路环境水害危险度计算模型.最后,应用这一模型对陆桥新疆段水害进行了计算和对比分析,发现所得结果与水害实际分布情况拟合较好。

On the basis of analyzing hazard-fo rmative mechanism and hazard-formative factors of railw ay flood disaster, model of calculating fatality of railw ay f lood disaster is discussed and established by apply ing g ray theo ry and symbolic statistics.During the study, the authors take 39-years (1959 ～ 1997)flood disaster data of Xinjiang Line of New Eurasian Continental Bridge as the t raining data.Firstly, by analyzing and dealing w ith the historical data, flood disaster frequency, f lood disaster density and periods of disruption are determined to be the main indexes to evaluate fatality of railw ay flood disaster of Xinjiang Line of New Eurasian Continental Bridge, and the w eighting of three indexes are 5 、3 、2 in turn on the basis of gray theory.Then, take the distance betw een grade three stations along railw ay as analysis unit, and on the basis of the interrelationships and the w eighting of each of three indexes, a model of evaluating the fatalness of railw ay f lood disaster is established.Lastly, the model established in this paper are applied into pract ice and calculate the fatality of the research uni ts of Xinjiang Line of New Eurasian Continental Bridge, and find that the result calculated is very close to the distribution condition of flood disaster along railway.