基于因果和岭回归的新疆人口结构与CO2排放关系分析

doi:10.7523/j.issn.2095-6134.2015.03.007

中国科学院大学学报 ›› 2015, Vol. 32 ›› Issue (3): 333-341.DOI: 10.7523/j.issn.2095-6134.2015.03.007

基于因果和岭回归的新疆人口结构与CO₂排放关系分析

霍金炜^1,2, 杨德刚¹, 汪菲^1,2, 杨帆^1,2, 张文彪^1,2

1. 中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所, 乌鲁木齐 830011;
2. 中国科学院大学, 北京 100049

收稿日期:2014-04-16 修回日期:2014-07-22 发布日期:2015-05-15
通讯作者: 杨德刚
基金资助:
中国科学院西部行动计划项目(KZCX2-XB3-01)资助

Analysis of the relationship between population structure and CO₂ emissions in Xinjiang based on Granger causality and the ridge regression

HUO Jinwei^1,2, YANG Degang¹, WANG Fei^1,2, YANG Fan^1,2, ZHANG Wenbiao^1,2

1. Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China;
2. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China

Received:2014-04-16 Revised:2014-07-22 Published:2015-05-15

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

利用新疆1958—2011年CO₂排放量和人口数据,运用格兰杰因果检验和岭回归模型对新疆人口因素变化与CO₂排放之间的因果关系和作用力进行实证分析,结果如下.1)在改革开放前,所有人口指标均与CO₂排放呈现双向的因果联系;但改革开放后,农村居民消费与CO₂排放失去因果关系.2)人口因素对CO₂排放的推动作用在不同的发展阶段变化较大;随着改革开放政策的实施,生活方式发生较大变化,家庭户数与消费逐步取代就业结构和人口总量成为CO₂排放最主要的推动因素.

关键词: 人口结构, 家庭户数, 格兰杰因果, 岭回归

Abstract:

With the data of CO₂ emissions and population of Xinjiang from 1958 to 2011, we make empirical analysis on the causal relationship between the change in population factors and the CO₂ emissions and on the acting force by using Granger causality test and the ridge regression model. The results are shown in the following. 1)Before the reform and opening up, the bidirectional causal relationship presents between all the relative indexes of population and CO₂ emissions. However since the reform and opening up, the causal relationship between the countryside inhabitant cousumption and CO₂ emissions disappears. 2)The promoting function of population factors on CO₂ emissions is rather different in different stages of development. With the implementation of the reform and opening-up policy, the households and consumption become the main driving factos in place of employment structure and population gross.

Key words: population structure, number of households, granger causality, ridge regression

中图分类号:

X24
X321

霍金炜, 杨德刚, 汪菲, 杨帆, 张文彪. 基于因果和岭回归的新疆人口结构与CO₂排放关系分析[J]. 中国科学院大学学报, 2015, 32(3): 333-341.

HUO Jinwei, YANG Degang, WANG Fei, YANG Fan, ZHANG Wenbiao. Analysis of the relationship between population structure and CO₂ emissions in Xinjiang based on Granger causality and the ridge regression[J]. , 2015, 32(3): 333-341.

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基于因果和岭回归的新疆人口结构与CO₂排放关系分析

Analysis of the relationship between population structure and CO₂ emissions in Xinjiang based on Granger causality and the ridge regression

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