吉林省工业增长与工业大气污染脱钩关系的时空演变

doi:10.7523/j.issn.2095-6134.2019.01.011

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 基于脱钩理论，选取工业SO₂和工业烟粉尘，对2003—2014年间吉林省9个地市州工业增长与工业大气污染关系展开研究，分析大气污染脱钩状态的时空演变、影响因素及未来变化趋势。结果表明：吉林省两种工业大气污染物均以绝对脱钩为主。根据大气污染脱钩状态变化情况，将9个地市州划分为4种类型。两种工业大气污染脱钩状态空间演变趋势并不一致，研究期内工业SO₂扩张性负脱钩状态经历中部集聚—周边扩散—中部集聚—扩散的变化，工业烟粉尘扩张性负脱钩状态逐渐由中部向东部扩展。工业大气污染脱钩弹性系数分解结果显示不同城市制约工业大气污染脱钩状态的提升的因素有所差异。Hurst指数计算结果表明，未来吉林省大部分地区工业SO₂脱钩弹性系数呈下降态势，工业烟粉尘脱钩弹性系数变化分异较为明显。

关键词: 工业大气污染, 脱钩关系, 时空演变, Hurst指数, 吉林省

Abstract: In this study, the industrial SO₂ emission and soot (dust) emission were selected as two indicators of atmospheric pollution, and the space and time patterns of the decoupling relationship between industrial growth and atmospheric pollution from 2003 to 2014 in Jilin Province were evaluated based on decoupling theory. Then, a new decoupling causality chain was established to analyze the change of decoupling indexes. Finally, the evolutionary characteristic of decoupling indexes was analyzed by adopting R/S method. Conclusions are drawn as follows. During the period from 2003 to 2014, decoupling of the emission of SO₂ and soot (dust) from industrial growth mainly belonged to absolute decoupling, and the proportion of absolute decoupling of industrial soot (dust) was higher than that of industrial SO₂. Based on the changes of decoupling level, we divided the 9 (prefectural) cities in Jilin Province into 4 groups. The spatial evolutions of decoupling state for the two kinds of industrial pollution were different. The decoupling state in the middle of Jilin Province changed more. For soot (dust), the state of expansive negative decoupling graduately expanded toward the east from the middle, and the stress of atmospheric pollution caused by soot (dust) mainly concentrated in cities around Changchun and Songyuan. Decomposition results of decoupling indexes showed that the constraints on decoupling level improvement were different in different cities. Hurst components showed that the decoupling elasticities of industrial SO₂ would decrease and the decoupling elasticities of industrial soot (dust) in different cities showed different variation trends in the meantime.

Key words: industrial atmospheric pollution, decoupling relationship, spatial-temporal evolution, Hurst exponent, Jilin Province

中图分类号:

K902
X22

任嘉敏, 马延吉. 吉林省工业增长与工业大气污染脱钩关系的时空演变[J]. 中国科学院大学学报, 2019, 36(1): 72-81.

REN Jiamin, MA Yanji. Spatial-temporal evolution characteristics of decoupling relationship between industrial growth and industrial atmospheric pollution in Jilin Province[J]. , 2019, 36(1): 72-81.

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