北半球春季高空大气环流异常对中国夏季干湿热浪事件的影响*

doi:10.7523/j.ucas.2025.039

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 研究春季北半球大气环流异常对中国不同类型热浪事件的影响机制对于应对愈发频繁的极端天气具有重要意义。利用第五代欧洲中心全球气候和天气再分析数据(格点分辨率 0.25 °×0.25 °）,采用相关分析和奇异值分解方法研究了近70年春季（3-5月）北半球500hPa高空位势高度异常与中国夏季（6-8月）干湿热浪事件的关系。结果表明：春季北半球大气环流异常与干湿热浪事件持续日数有显著的相关关系,不同区域位势高度异常对干湿热浪事件有不同的影响。中国北方地区干热浪事件持续日数与春季欧亚大陆高空位势高度异常呈显著正相关,中国西南地区和东南沿海地区湿热浪事件持续日数异常主要与春季欧亚大陆和低纬度地区上空大气环流有关,华中地区湿热浪事件主要与北太平洋高空环流异常有关。春季北大西洋振荡、北极涛动等大气环流模态对夏季干湿热浪事件持续日数的预测有良好的作用。

关键词: 干湿热浪事件, 大气环流, 极端天气

Abstract: Understanding the formation mechanisms of different types of heatwave events in China is of great significance for addressing the increasingly frequent extreme weather events. Using the fifth-generation ECMWF global climate and weather reanalysis data (ERA5) (resolution :0.25° × 0.25°), this study investigates the relationship between spring (MMA) 500 hPa geopotential height anomalies in the Northern Hemisphere and the duration of summer (JJA) dry and moist heatwave events in China by using correlation analysis and Singular Value Decomposition (SVD) methods. The results show that spring Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation anomalies are significantly correlated with the duration of two types of heatwave events, with geopotential height anomalies in different regions exerting varying influences. The duration of dry heatwave events in northern China is significantly positively correlated with spring geopotential height anomalies over Eurasia. The duration anomalies of moist heatwave events in southwestern and southeastern coastal regions are mainly related to atmospheric circulation over Eurasia and low-latitude regions in spring, while moist heatwave events in central China are primarily associated with upper-level circulation anomalies over the North Pacific. The spring phases of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Arctic Oscillation (AO) show good predictive potential for the duration anomalies of summer dry and moist heatwave events.

Key words: dry and moist heatwave events, atmospheric circulation, extreme weather

中图分类号:

P467

范家欣, 余翔, 姚凤梅. 北半球春季高空大气环流异常对中国夏季干湿热浪事件的影响^*[J]. 中国科学院大学学报, DOI: 10.7523/j.ucas.2025.039.

FAN Jiaxin, YU Xiang, YAO Fengmei. The impact of spring upper-level atmospheric circulation anomalies on summer dry-moist heatwave events in China[J]. Journal of University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, DOI: 10.7523/j.ucas.2025.039.

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北半球春季高空大气环流异常对中国夏季干湿热浪事件的影响^*

The impact of spring upper-level atmospheric circulation anomalies on summer dry-moist heatwave events in China

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