关键词: 太湖流域, 营养物质输移, 模拟评估, 1960年代, 富营养化

Abstract: After industrial pollution in point source, land use/cover and other data in 1960s for SWAT model were estimated by statistical and modeling methods, spatial-temporal distribution of nutrient transport in Taihu Basin during 1960s was simulated and the effort factors of nutrient transport were analyzed using SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool)model. The simulation results show that total nitrogen (TN) from external sources of nutrients into Taihu Lake in one year is less than 10000t, total phosphorus less than 1000t. The maximum of TP spatial distribution is located Zhexi Region and the maximum of TN spatial distribution is located Huxi Region. The results of sensitivity tests show that sewerage, which is one of five sensitivity factors (sewerage, industrial sources, livestock drainage, soil nutrients and losses of fertilizers in drained agricultural lands), has the max contribution to nutrients into Taihu Lake, 35.6% for TN, 38.4% for TP. are more than nutrients from other sources. The NPS is main form of external sources of nutrients into Lake Taihu, which contributes 76.6％ and 74.8％ of TN and TP respectively. Human activity has an important effort to nutrient transport into Taihu Lake.