辽河流域水环境承载力仿真模拟研究

doi:10.7523/j.issn.2095-6134.2008.6.004

中国科学院大学学报 ›› 2008, Vol. 26 ›› Issue (6): 738-747.DOI: 10.7523/j.issn.2095-6134.2008.6.004

辽河流域水环境承载力仿真模拟研究

赵　卫^1,2，刘景双¹，孔凡娥³

1中国科学院东北地理与农业生态研究所，长春130012；2 中国科学院研究生院，北京 100049； 3佛山市城市规划勘测设计研究院，佛山528000

收稿日期:1900-01-01 修回日期:1900-01-01 发布日期:2008-11-15

Simulation of water environmental carrying capacity in Liaohe watershed

ZHAO Wei^{1, 2}, LIU Jing-Shuang¹, KONG Fan-E³

1 Northeast Institute of Geography and Agricultural Ecology, Chinese Academy of Science, Changchun 130012, China; 2Graduate University of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China; 3 Institute of Foshan Urban Planning and Surveying, Foshan 528000, China

Received:1900-01-01 Revised:1900-01-01 Published:2008-11-15

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 鉴于水环境承载力复合系统具有高阶次、多变量、多回路和非线性的反馈结构，运用系统动力学原理，建立辽河流域水环境承载力仿真模型，以揭示辽宁省辽河流域水环境承载力的动态变化及其影响因素；模型的有效性检验表明，所建模型可以用于研究区水环境承载力的模拟预测和政策分析。预测结果显示，1996~2005年研究区水环境承载力的波动性较强，水环境承载状况呈恶化趋势；水环境系统仍然是水环境承载力的决定因素，水环境管理的优化作用不断增强。基于此，设计了4个水环境承载力调整方案，并利用所建模型对各方案进行模拟预测，旨在为水环境承载力的优化调整提供参考。

关键词: 水环境承载力, 系统动力学, 仿真模型, 辽河流域

Abstract: Water environmental carrying capacity (WECC) complex system is characterized by high-step, multi-variables, multi-loops and nonlinear feedback structure. Based on this, the simulation model of WECC in liaohe watershed is built using system dynamics, in order to explore the dynamic variation of WECC in Liaohe watershed of Liaoning Province and its driving factors. The validity test of the model showed that the simulation model constructed could be used to simulate the dynamic variation of WECC and analyze the effect of development policy. From 1996 to 2005, WECC of the region fluctuated significantly, and water environment overloaded with the trend of Deterioration. Water environment is the dependent factor of WECC, but effect of water environmental management on WECC increased gradually. Four schemes of WECC adjustment were designed, and the simulation model constructed was applied to simulate the dynamic variation of WECC in order to select the optimal scheme.

Key words: water environmental carrying capacity, system dynamics, simulation model, Liaohe watershed

赵　卫，刘景双，孔凡娥. 辽河流域水环境承载力仿真模拟研究[J]. 中国科学院大学学报, 2008, 26(6): 738-747.

ZHAO Wei, LIU Jing-Shuang, KONG Fan-E. Simulation of water environmental carrying capacity in Liaohe watershed[J]. , 2008, 26(6): 738-747.

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辽河流域水环境承载力仿真模拟研究

Simulation of water environmental carrying capacity in Liaohe watershed

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