1957-2012年新疆艾比湖流域极端气温与降水变化趋势

doi:10.7523/j.issn.2095-6134.2018.02.003

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 根据1957—2012年艾比湖流域7个气象站点的24 h日降水量、逐日最高气温和最低气温资料，选取22个表征极端气候变化指数，利用线性趋势估计和Mann-Kendall突变检验等方法分析该流域极端气温与降水的变化趋势。结果如下：1）近56年，艾比湖流域极端气温暖指数总体呈上升趋势；大部分冷指数呈减小趋势，而极端最低气温和月最高气温极小值分别以0.78和0.33℃/10a速率明显上升；除连续干日以3.63 d/10a的幅度呈显著减小趋势外，其他降水指数均呈增加趋势。2）冷日持续日数和极端最低气温的增温幅度分别明显大于暖日持续日数和极端最高气温，而夜指数（暖夜、冷夜）的变暖幅度也明显大于昼指数（暖昼、冷昼）；与全球其他区域相比，艾比湖流域气温暖指数的变化幅度总体较小，而极端冷指数和降水指数的变化幅度较大。3）3种大气环流指数对艾比湖流域极端气温的影响程度依次为北极涛动指数 > 北大西洋涛动指数 > 厄尔尼诺-南方涛动指数，而对极端冷指数的影响最为明显；对极端降水指数也有一定影响，但影响较极端气温指数小。4）除极端最高气温外，其他暖指数和年平均气温均呈显著正相关关系；除月最高气温极小值和极端最低气温与年平均气温呈显著正相关关系外，其他冷指数和气温日较差与年平均气温呈显著负相关关系；大部分极端降水指数与年降水总量呈显著正相关关系。

关键词: 艾比湖流域, 极端气温与降水, 突变检验, 大气环流

Abstract: The linear regression and Mann-Kendall abrupt change test methods are employed to analyze the temporal variability trends of 22 extreme climate indices in Ebinur Lake basin from 1957 to 2012. The results are given as follows. 1) From 1957 to 2012, most of the warm indices showed increase trends while summer days, annual maximum temperature and warm spell duration days non-significantly increased. Most of the cold indices had decrease trends, but daily minimum temperature and monthly minimum value of daily maximum temperature increased by 0.78 and 0.33℃/10 a, respectively. Except that consecutive dry days significantly decreased by 3.63d/10a, the precipitation indices showed increasing trends. 2) The amplitudes of changes in cold spell duration days, monthly minimum value of daily maximum temperature, and annual minimum temperature were larger than those of changes in warm spell duration days, monthly maximum value of daily minimum temperature, and annual maximum temperature,respectively. Changes in night extreme climate indices were greater than changes in daytime extreme climate indices. 3) Among atmospheric circulation patterns,AO had the highest influence on extreme temperature indices, followed by NAO and ENSO. These patterns had the most obvious influence on cold extreme indices, but slight effect on extreme precipitation indices in Ebinur Lake basin. 4) Except annual minimum temperature, the other warm indices showed significant positive correlation with annual mean temperature(AMT). Except monthly minimum value of daily maximum temperature and annual minimum temperature, which had significant positive correlations with AMT, the cold indices as well as diurnal temperature range showed significant negative correlation with AMT. Most of extreme precipitation indices had significant positive relationship with total annual precipitation.

Key words: Ebinur Lake basin, extreme temperature and precipitation, abrupt change test, atmospheric circulation

中图分类号:

P467

丁之勇, 葛拥晓, 吉力力·阿不都外力, 蒲佳. 1957-2012年新疆艾比湖流域极端气温与降水变化趋势[J]. 中国科学院大学学报, 2018, 35(2): 160-171.

DING Zhiyong, GE Yongxiao, ABUDUWAILI Jilili, PU Jia. Trends of extreme temperature and precipitation in Ebinur Lake basin in Xinjiang during the period from 1957 to 2012[J]. , 2018, 35(2): 160-171.

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