全球发震时刻-天体位置统计特征及其与引潮力关联分析

doi:10.7523/j.issn.2095-6134.2021.05.007

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 利用Iris网站中约55万条地震数据对日-月-地、日-地、月-地空间位置关系周期性变化对全球地震时间的影响进行统计分析，并对统计结果与引潮力作用之间的关联进行研究。统计分析结果表明：1）考虑日-月-地空间关系，在不同的震级、震源深度下，全球地震频率在日-月-地三者成90°或180°时均有较为明显的提升；2）考虑日-地空间关系，全球地震频率在地球运行于惊蛰-谷雨对应的公转轨道时有着明显的提升，当地球运行于春分-清明对应的公转轨道时，全球地震频率在农历初七的提升非常明显，相对于自然概率提升47.6%；3）考虑月-地空间关系，发震位置经度距离月球星下点经度差为180°时易触发地震；4）研究表明部分地震发震受到引潮力调制，特定周期下引潮力的最值区间对应于全球地震频率升高的时间区间。

关键词: 天体位置, 引潮力, 统计, 地震频率

Abstract: Based on a dataset of 550 000 earthquake events gathered from IRIS website, this article studies the periodic changes in the sun-moon-earth, sun-earth, and moon-earth spatial relationship, performs statistical analysis on its impact on global earthquake frequency, and analyzes the relationship between the statistical results and tidal forces. The results demonstrate that:1) Considering the sun-moon-earth space relationship, when the difference between the geocentric ecliptic longitudes of the moon and sun is 90° or 180°, the global earthquake frequency will be greatly elevated at a specific earthquake magnitude and focal depth. 2) Considering the space relationship between the sun and the earth, the frequency of global earthquakes has increased significantly when the earth is passing the Insects Awaken and Grain Rain points in its orbit. When the earth is passing the Vernal Equinox and Qingming points in its orbit, the global earthquake frequency increases significantly on the seventh day of the month in the lunar calendar. This number is 47.6% higher than the natural probability. 3) Considering the space relationship between the moon and the earth, an earthquake tends to be triggered at a location where the longitude is 180° ahead of the sub-lunar point. 4) The analytical results illustrate that some earthquakes are modulated by tidal force. In a specific time period, the interval of maximum tidal force corresponds to the time interval during which the global earthquake frequency increases.

Key words: celestial position, tidal force, statistics, earthquake frequency

中图分类号:

P315.728

纪策, 吴凯, 骆磊, 王心源. 全球发震时刻-天体位置统计特征及其与引潮力关联分析[J]. 中国科学院大学学报, 2021, 38(5): 632-641.

JI Ce, WU Kai, LUO Lei, WANG Xinyuan. Statistical characteristics of global earthquake time-celestial body position and its correlation with tidal force[J]. Journal of University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, 2021, 38(5): 632-641.

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