气候和土地利用变化对广东省植被净初级生产力的影响*

doi:10.7523/j.ucas.2025.021

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 植被净初级生产力（net primary productivity, NPP）是评估陆地生态系统碳汇能力的重要指标。研究气候变化与土地利用变化对植被NPP的影响,对理解区域生态系统碳汇管理具有重要意义。本研究基于2003—2022年MODIS NPP数据,采用Theil-Sen趋势分析和Mann-Kendall检验,探讨近20年广东省NPP的时空变化规律。结合相关分析和地理探测器方法评估气候因子与土地利用变化对植被NPP影响。结果表明：珠三角NPP低值区呈现显著退化趋势,而粤东与粤北NPP高值区呈现明显或缓慢改善趋势。此外,气候和土地利用变化对NPP的相对贡献度分别为59.48%和40.51%,其中气温、降水和辐射对NPP的贡献度分别为17%、58%和25%。在不同未来气候情景下,高排放条件会导致NPP高值区面积减少,低值区面积增加;而中等排放条件下,NPP呈现稳定增长趋势。

关键词: 净初级生产力（NPP）, 气候变化, 土地利用, CMIP6-SSP气候情景, 时空变化

Abstract: Net Primary Productivity (NPP) serves as a vital metric for evaluating the carbon sequestration potential of terrestrial ecosystems. Investigating the impacts of climate change and land use change on vegetation NPP is crucial for understanding regional ecosystem carbon sink management. This study utilizes MODIS NPP data from 2003 to 2022, combined with Theil-Sen trend analysis and the Mann-Kendall test, to examine the spatiotemporal patterns of NPP in Guangdong Province over the past two decades. Furthermore, correlation analysis and the Geodetector were applied to quantify the effects of climatic factors and land use changes on vegetation NPP. The findings reveal that low-NPP regions in the Pearl River Delta exhibit a significant declining trend, whereas high-NPP regions in eastern and northern Guangdong demonstrate either pronounced or gradual improvement. Additionally, the relative contributions of climate change and land use change to NPP variations were 59.48% and 40.51%, respectively. Among climatic factors, precipitation had the highest contribution (58%), followed by radiation (25%) and temperature (17%). Under future climate scenarios, high-emission conditions are projected to reduce the extent of high-NPP areas while expanding low-NPP areas, whereas moderate-emission scenarios are expected to sustain a steady increase in NPP.

Key words: net primary productivity (NPP), climate change, land use, CMIP6-SSP climate scenarios, spatiotemporal changes

中图分类号:

S771.8

步可, 王雪, 姚凤梅. 气候和土地利用变化对广东省植被净初级生产力的影响^*[J]. 中国科学院大学学报, DOI: 10.7523/j.ucas.2025.021.

BU Ke, WANG Xue, YAO Fengmei. The Impact of Climate and Land Use Changes on Net Primary Productivity of Vegetation in Guangdong Province[J]. Journal of University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, DOI: 10.7523/j.ucas.2025.021.

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气候和土地利用变化对广东省植被净初级生产力的影响^*

The Impact of Climate and Land Use Changes on Net Primary Productivity of Vegetation in Guangdong Province

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