Regional Export-Oriented Economic Fluctuations and Regional Growth in China
Received date: 2004-06-25
Revised date: 2004-10-08
Online published: 2005-07-15
郭腾云 . 区域外向型经济发展变化与区域增长分析[J]. 中国科学院大学学报, 2005 , 22(4) : 454 -461 . DOI: 10.7523/j.issn.2095-6134.2005.4.009
Based on the augmented production function, an analysis model of regional outward-oriented economic development and regional economic growth is constructed.Applying 1981 ～2000 data on regional GDP and its components, labor inputs and exports for 25 provincial-level regions in China, the instability XI of exports is calculated for every region in China as the relative standard errors around its best-fitted trend during the period 1981～2000.This instability measure and the data above-mentioned are then employed to estimate the analysis model, which controls the effects of capital, labor and exports growth rates, and the instability of exports.The estimation results of the analysis model show that, on one hand, not only the growth rates of capital and labor have positiveeffects on regional economic growth, but also the growth rate of exports has positive effects on regional growth in China during the period 1981 ～2000 ;on the other hand, the instability variable XI has an adverse effect on regional economic growth in China during the same period, and the deleterious effect of the instability is significant.
Key words： regional exports; export instability; regional growth; effect
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