区域外向型经济发展变化与区域增长分析

doi:10.7523/j.issn.2095-6134.2005.4.009

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

以扩展的生产函数作为分析的框架,构建了区域外向型经济发展与增长的分析模型.利用中国25个省市区1981～2000年的GDP及其构成数据、劳动力投入数据、商品出口以及它们的派生数据所构成的截面数据,计算分析了中国区域外向型经济发展变化对区域增长的作用情况.对模型的估计发现:(1)不仅区域资本、劳动力投入的增长对区域增长的作用是积极的,而且区域出口的增长对区域增长的作用也是积极的.其中,以资本投入增长对区域增长的推动作用最大;其次是劳动力增长的作用;再次是出口增长的作用.(2)区域出口波动对区域增长产生不利影响,且这种作用显著

关键词: 区域出口, 出口波动, 区域增长, 作用

Abstract:

Based on the augmented production function, an analysis model of regional outward-oriented economic development and regional economic growth is constructed.Applying 1981 ～2000 data on regional GDP and its components, labor inputs and exports for 25 provincial-level regions in China, the instability XI of exports is calculated for every region in China as the relative standard errors around its best-fitted trend during the period 1981～2000.This instability measure and the data above-mentioned are then employed to estimate the analysis model, which controls the effects of capital, labor and exports growth rates, and the instability of exports.The estimation results of the analysis model show that, on one hand, not only the growth rates of capital and labor have positiveeffects on regional economic growth, but also the growth rate of exports has positive effects on regional growth in China during the period 1981 ～2000 ;on the other hand, the instability variable XI has an adverse effect on regional economic growth in China during the same period, and the deleterious effect of the instability is significant.

Key words: regional exports, export instability, regional growth, effect

中图分类号:

F127

郭腾云. 区域外向型经济发展变化与区域增长分析[J]. 中国科学院大学学报, 2005, 22(4): 454-461.

GUO Teng-Yun. Regional Export-Oriented Economic Fluctuations and Regional Growth in China[J]. , 2005, 22(4): 454-461.

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