收稿日期: 2014-04-16
修回日期: 2014-07-22
网络出版日期: 2015-05-15
基金资助
中国科学院西部行动计划项目(KZCX2-XB3-01)资助
Analysis of the relationship between population structure and CO2 emissions in Xinjiang based on Granger causality and the ridge regression
Received date: 2014-04-16
Revised date: 2014-07-22
Online published: 2015-05-15
霍金炜 , 杨德刚 , 汪菲 , 杨帆 , 张文彪 . 基于因果和岭回归的新疆人口结构与CO2排放关系分析[J]. 中国科学院大学学报, 2015 , 32(3) : 333 -341 . DOI: 10.7523/j.issn.2095-6134.2015.03.007
With the data of CO2 emissions and population of Xinjiang from 1958 to 2011, we make empirical analysis on the causal relationship between the change in population factors and the CO2 emissions and on the acting force by using Granger causality test and the ridge regression model. The results are shown in the following. 1)Before the reform and opening up, the bidirectional causal relationship presents between all the relative indexes of population and CO2 emissions. However since the reform and opening up, the causal relationship between the countryside inhabitant cousumption and CO2 emissions disappears. 2)The promoting function of population factors on CO2 emissions is rather different in different stages of development. With the implementation of the reform and opening-up policy, the households and consumption become the main driving factos in place of employment structure and population gross.
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