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2017 , Vol. 34 >Issue 5: 598 - 609

DOI: https://doi.org/10.7523/j.issn.2095-6134.2017.05.010

环境科学与地理学

基于灰色关联模型的能源消费与经济增长的关系——以新疆为例

  • 王兴民 ,
  • 王强 ,
  • 董洁芳
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  • 1 中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所, 乌鲁木齐 830011;
    2 中国科学院大学, 北京 100049;
    3 新疆大学资源与环境科学学院, 乌鲁木齐 830046

收稿日期: 2016-08-30

  修回日期: 2016-12-09

  网络出版日期: 2017-09-15

基金资助

中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所所长基金（Y475061001）和新疆财经大学校级科研基金一般项目（2016XYB001）资助通信作者：

收起

Relationship between energy consumption and economic growth based on grey relational model:a case study of Xinjiang

  • WANG Xingmin ,
  • WANG Qiang ,
  • DONG Jiefang
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  • 1 Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China;
    2 University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China;
    3 College of Resource and Environment Sciences, Xinjiang University, Urumqi 830046, China

Received date: 2016-08-30

  Revised date: 2016-12-09

  Online published: 2017-09-15

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摘要

深入了解能源消费与经济增长的关系对挖掘新疆节能空间具有重要意义。基于2005-2014年新疆能源消费与经济增长相关数据，运用灰色关联分析，分别对新疆各产业能源消费和能源消费种类与经济增长的相关性进行实证分析。结果表明：1）不同产业能源消费与经济增长关联程度差异显著，其中工业与建筑业二者的能源消费与经济增长的关联度相同且最大。2）在工业能源消费中，制造业能源消费与经济增长的关联程度最大，且其占工业能源消费的比重最大。3）不同能源消费种类与经济增长的关联度也显著不同，其中煤炭能源消费量与经济增长的关联度最高，石油能源消费量与经济增长的关联度最低。这说明新疆的经济增长属于要素投入型的经济增长方式，对能源的依赖性较强；同时，由于要考虑国家战略需求，新疆的能源消费种类结构存在一定程度的不合理性。本工作基于对新疆产业能源消费、能源消费种类与经济增长的研究结论，给出相应的政策建议。

关键词： 能源消费; 经济增长; 灰色关联分析; 新疆

本文引用格式

王兴民 , 王强 , 董洁芳 . 基于灰色关联模型的能源消费与经济增长的关系——以新疆为例[J]. 中国科学院大学学报, 2017 , 34(5) : 598 -609 . DOI: 10.7523/j.issn.2095-6134.2017.05.010

Abstract

Deep understanding of the relationship between energy consumption and economic growth is of vital importance for exploring the energy saving space in Xinjiang. Based on the data related to the energy consumption and economic growth in Xinjiang from 2005 to 2014 and by using the grey relational analysis method, the correlation between energy consumption in various industries with economic growth and the correlation of energy consumption types with economic growth in Xinjiang are analyzed. As indicated by the results of the analysis, firstly, the relational degrees between energy consumption and economic growth differ significantly among industries. Specifically, the industrial sector and construction industry present the same highest relational degree. Secondly, among the industrial sectors, the manufacturing sector energy consumption has the greatest relevance with economic growth and accounts for the largest proportion. Lastly, the relational degrees with economic growth also differ significantly among various energy consumption types. The coal energy consumption has the highest relational degree with economic growth, while petroleum energy consumption has the lowest relational degree. These illustrate two points. On one hand, the economic growth in Xinjiang has a factor input economic growth mode which strongly depends on energy. On the other hand, the structure of energy consumption in Xinjiang is not reasonable to some degree under the consideration of requirements of the national strategies. Based on this study, some policy implications regarding the industrial energy consumption, energy consumption types, and economic growth in Xinjiang are proposed.

Key words： energy consumption; economic growth; grey relational analysis(GRA); Xinjiang

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