基于灰色关联模型的能源消费与经济增长的关系——以新疆为例

doi:10.7523/j.issn.2095-6134.2017.05.010

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 深入了解能源消费与经济增长的关系对挖掘新疆节能空间具有重要意义。基于2005-2014年新疆能源消费与经济增长相关数据，运用灰色关联分析，分别对新疆各产业能源消费和能源消费种类与经济增长的相关性进行实证分析。结果表明：1）不同产业能源消费与经济增长关联程度差异显著，其中工业与建筑业二者的能源消费与经济增长的关联度相同且最大。2）在工业能源消费中，制造业能源消费与经济增长的关联程度最大，且其占工业能源消费的比重最大。3）不同能源消费种类与经济增长的关联度也显著不同，其中煤炭能源消费量与经济增长的关联度最高，石油能源消费量与经济增长的关联度最低。这说明新疆的经济增长属于要素投入型的经济增长方式，对能源的依赖性较强；同时，由于要考虑国家战略需求，新疆的能源消费种类结构存在一定程度的不合理性。本工作基于对新疆产业能源消费、能源消费种类与经济增长的研究结论，给出相应的政策建议。

关键词: 能源消费, 经济增长, 灰色关联分析, 新疆

Abstract: Deep understanding of the relationship between energy consumption and economic growth is of vital importance for exploring the energy saving space in Xinjiang. Based on the data related to the energy consumption and economic growth in Xinjiang from 2005 to 2014 and by using the grey relational analysis method, the correlation between energy consumption in various industries with economic growth and the correlation of energy consumption types with economic growth in Xinjiang are analyzed. As indicated by the results of the analysis, firstly, the relational degrees between energy consumption and economic growth differ significantly among industries. Specifically, the industrial sector and construction industry present the same highest relational degree. Secondly, among the industrial sectors, the manufacturing sector energy consumption has the greatest relevance with economic growth and accounts for the largest proportion. Lastly, the relational degrees with economic growth also differ significantly among various energy consumption types. The coal energy consumption has the highest relational degree with economic growth, while petroleum energy consumption has the lowest relational degree. These illustrate two points. On one hand, the economic growth in Xinjiang has a factor input economic growth mode which strongly depends on energy. On the other hand, the structure of energy consumption in Xinjiang is not reasonable to some degree under the consideration of requirements of the national strategies. Based on this study, some policy implications regarding the industrial energy consumption, energy consumption types, and economic growth in Xinjiang are proposed.

Key words: energy consumption, economic growth, grey relational analysis(GRA), Xinjiang

中图分类号:

F224.9

王兴民, 王强, 董洁芳. 基于灰色关联模型的能源消费与经济增长的关系——以新疆为例[J]. 中国科学院大学学报, 2017, 34(5): 598-609.

WANG Xingmin, WANG Qiang, DONG Jiefang. Relationship between energy consumption and economic growth based on grey relational model:a case study of Xinjiang[J]. , 2017, 34(5): 598-609.

参考文献

[1] Dong J f, Wang Q, Deng C, et al. How to Move China toward a green-energy economy:from a sector perspective[J]. Sustainability, 2016, 8(4):337.
[2] Wang Q, Chen Y. Barriers and opportunities of using the clean development mechanism to advance renewable energy development in China[J]. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 2010, 14(7):1989-1998.
[3] Wang Q, Chen X. Energy policies for managing China's carbon emission[J]. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 2015, 50:470-479.
[4] Liu L H, Yin C B. Gray relational analysis of energy consumption and energy structure in rural areas of China during 1999-2010[J]. Acta Agriculturae Zhejiangensis, 2014, 26(2):503-509.
[5] Kose E, Burmaoglu S, Kabak M. Grey relational analysis between energy consumption and economic growth[J]. Grey Systems:Theory and Application, 2013, 3(3):291-304.
[6] Berk I, Yetkiner H. Energy prices and economic growth in the long run:theory and evidence[J]. Renewable & Sustainable Energy Reviews, 2014, 36:228-235.
[7] Zhang C L, Tan Z L. Correlation Analysis on the Energy Consumption Structure and Economic Growth:Taking Shandong Province as an Example[J]. Sustainable Development of Industry and Economy, 2014, 869/870:914-918.
[8] Shahbaz M, Hye Q M A, Tiwari A K, et al. Economic growth, energy consumption, financial development, international trade and CO₂, emissions in Indonesia[J]. Renewable & Sustainable Energy Reviews, 2013, 25(5):109-121.
[9] Li X Y. Analysis of Relationship between Energy Consumption and Economic Growth Based on Gray Relevance[J]. Journal of Chongqing University(Social Science Edition), 2010, 16(5):31-35.
[10] Al-Mulali U, Che N B C S. The impact of energy consumption and CO₂, emission on the economic growth and financial development in the Sub Saharan African countries[J]. Energy, 2012, 39(1):180-186.
[11] Li F, Dong S C, Li X, et al. Energy consumption-economic growth relationship and carbon dioxide emissions in China[J]. Energy Policy, 2011, 39(2):568-574.
[12] Hossain M S. Panel estimation for CO₂ emissions, energy consumption, economic growth, trade openness and urbanization of newly industrialized countries[J]. Energy Policy, 2011, 39(11):6991-6999.
[13] Mudakkar S R, Zaman K, Khan M M, et al. Energy for economic growth, industrialization, environment and natural resources:Living with just enough[J]. Renewable & Sustainable Energy Reviews, 2013, 25(3):580-595.
[14] Lee C C, Chang C P. The impact of energy consumption on economic growth:Evidence from linear and nonlinear models in Taiwan[J]. Energy, 2007, 32(12):2282-2294.
[15] Asafu-Adjaye J. The relationship between energy consumption, energy prices and economic growth:time series evidence from Asian developing countries[J]. Energy Economics, 2000, 22(6):615-625.
[16] Luo X, Wang Y, Zhao J, et al. Grey relational analysis of an integrated cascade utilization system of geothermal water[J]. International Journal of Green Energy, 2015, 13(1):14-27.
[17] Lin S J, Lu I J, Lewis C. Grey relation performance correlations among economics, energy use and carbon dioxide emission in Taiwan[J]. Energy Policy, 2007, 35(3):1948-1955.
[18] Yuan C, Liu S, Fang Z, et al. The relation between Chinese economic development and energy consumption in the different periods[J]. Energy Policy, 2010, 38(9):5189-5198.
[19] Wang L, Feng-Ming X I, Wang J Y. Analysis of grey correlation between energy consumption and economic growth in Liaoning Province, China[J]. Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology, 2016, 27(3):920-926.
[20] Chen G Y, Li H T, Liang T, et al. Analysis of the Environmental Kuznets Curve Relationship Between Environmental Pollution and Economic Growth of Inner Mongolia[J]. Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin, 2012, 28(17):284-291.
[21] Chontanawat J, Hunt L C, Pierse R. Does energy consumption cause economic growth:Evidence from a systematic study of over 100 countries[J]. Journal of Policy Modeling, 2008, 30(2):209-220.
[22] Tiwari A. Primary Energy Consumption, CO₂ Emissions and Economic Growth:Evidence from India[J]. Indian Economic Review, 2012, 47(2):165-189.
[23] Erdal G, Erdal H, Esengün K. The causality between energy consumption and economic growth in Turkey[J]. Energy Policy, 2008, 36(10):3838-3842.
[24] Mahadevan R, Asafu-Adjaye J. Energy consumption, economic growth and prices:A reassessment using panel VECM for developed and developing countries[J]. Energy Policy, 2007, 35(4):2481-2490.
[25] Jobert T, Karanfil F. Sectoral energy consumption by source and economic growth in Turkey[J]. Energy Policy, 2007, 35(11):5447-5456.
[26] Paul S, Bhattacharya R N. Causality between energy consumption and economic growth in India:a note on conflicting results[J]. Energy Economics, 2004, 26(6):977-983.
[27] Phung B T. Energy consumption and economic growth in Vietnam:threshold cointegration and causality analysis[J]. International Journal of Energy Economics & Policy, 2011, 1(1):1-17.
[28] Alam M J, Begum I A, Buysse J, et al. Energy consumption, carbon emissions and economic growth nexus in Bangladesh:Cointegration and dynamic causality analysis[J]. Energy Policy, 2012, 45(2):217-225.
[29] Lin B, Wesseh P K. Energy consumption and economic growth in South Africa reexamined:a nonparametric testing apporach[J]. Renewable & Sustainable Energy Reviews, 2014, 40:840-850.
[30] Odhiambo N M. Energy consumption and economic growth nexus in Tanzania:an ARDL bounds testing approach[J]. Energy Policy, 2009, 37(2):617-622.
[31] Tsani S Z. Energy consumption and economic growth:a causality analysis for Greece[J]. Energy Economics, 2010, 32(3):582-590.
[32] Fan F, Lei Y. A review on energy, economy and environment(3E) system[J]. Ecological Economy, 2013(12):42-48.
[33] Saboori B, Sulaiman J. Environmental degradation, economic growth and energy consumption:evidence of the environmental Kuznets curve in Malaysia[J]. Energy Policy, 2013, 60(5):892-905.
[34] Saboori B, Sulaiman J. CO₂ emissions, energy consumption and economic growth in association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) countries:Acointegration approach[J]. Energy, 2013, 55(1):813-822.
[35] Gillingham K, Rapson D, Wagner G. The rebound effect and energy efficiency policy[J]. Review of Environmental Economics & Policy, 2015, 10(1):8-88.
[36] Azevedo I M L. Consumer end-use energy efficiency and rebound effects[J]. Annual Review of Environment & Resources, 2014, 39(1):393-418.
[37] Wang M Y, Cao T, Shen X L. Analysis of Beijing energy economy and environment (3E) system architecture and index system structure[J]. Advanced Materials Research, 2014, 1010-1012:1875-1882.
[38] Arouri M E H, Youssef A B, M'Henni H, et al. Energy consumption, economic growth and CO₂, emissions in Middle East and North African countries[J]. Energy Policy, 2012, 45(6):342-349.
[39] Han S, Zhu J. Research on the dynamic relationship of the energy-economy-environment (3E) system-based on an empirical analysis of China[J]. Energy Procedia, 2011, 5(1):2397-2404.
[40] Lin C S, Liou F M, Huang C P. Grey forecasting model for CO₂, emissions:a Taiwan study[J]. Advanced Materials Research, 2012, 518-523(11):1664-1668.
[41] Acaravci A, Ozturk I. On the relationship between energy consumption, CO₂, emissions and economic growth in Europe[J]. Energy, 2010, 35(12):5412-5420.
[42] Chang C C. A multivariate causality test of carbon dioxide emissions, energy consumption and economic growth in China[J]. Applied Energy, 2010, 87(11):3533-3537.
[43] Menyah K, Wolde-Rufael Y. Energy consumption, pollutant emissions and economic growth in South Africa[J]. Energy Economics, 2010, 32(6):1374-1382.
[44] Dong F, Tan Q M, Zhou D Q, et al. The effect of technological progress, industrial structure and opening-up degree on Chinese energy consumption:an empirical study based on the two-step method, the grey relational analysis and co-integration test[J]. China Population Resources & Environment, 2010, 20(6):22-27.
[45] Gasparatos A, Gadda T. Environmental support, energy security and economic growth in Japan[J]. Energy Policy, 2009, 37(37):4038-4048.
[46] Soytas U, Sari R. Energy consumption, economic growth, and carbon emissions:challenges faced by an EU candidate member[J]. Ecological Economics, 2009, 68(6):1667-1675.
[47] Deng J L. Introduction to grey system theory[J]. Journal of Grey System, 1989, 1(1):1-24.
[48] Deng J L. To analyze the connotation and extension (C&E) of grey theory[J]. Journal of Grey System, 2012, 24(4):293-298.
[49] Camelia D, Emil S, Liviu-Adrian C. Grey relational analysis of the financial sector in Europe[J]. Journal of Grey System, 2013, 25(4):19-30.
[50] Wang Q, Chen Y. Energy saving and emission reduction revolutionizing China's environmental protection[J]. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 2010, 14(1):535-539.