农业生产水足迹这一视角为研究区域农业空间资源要素匹配提供了新思路。以天山北麓农产品主产区15个县市为例，运用定量分析模型和GIS可视化技术，测算差异指数和不平衡指数，并进行水足迹与农业生产各要素的时空匹配分析。结果显示：2000—2017年区域内部水足迹指数不平衡且具有波动性，呈现出中部高、东西部偏低的空间格局。区域农业生产优势度整体上呈现出“中部高，东西低”的宏观态势，东中西地区分异趋于弱化，且2017年普遍下降。农业布局现状可分为过密型、合理型和过疏型3种类型。就水足迹指数与资源、环境、经济等各要素的匹配关系而言，发现沙湾县、乌苏市的水足迹-资源环境经济要素外部不公平性最为突出。具体而言：沙湾县和乌鲁木齐市水足迹-灌溉用水量不匹配问题较为突出；昌吉市、乌苏市、博乐市、克拉玛依市农产品水足迹与耕地资源匹配度较低；克拉玛依市区域水足迹-经济不平衡性较高；沙湾和奇台县农产品水足迹和农业面源污染的匹配状况较差；乌苏和奇台县水足迹-农业技术不平衡性较为显著。在此基础上，针对各县市水足迹与各要素之间的不平衡关系给出相应建议与对策。
For the arid regions, it is necessary to implement a water-saving strategy. Water footprint strategy has been viewed as a vital countermeasure to solve the issues of grain and water security. In our research, first, the agricultural water footprint was calculated from 2000 to 2017, which presents the current actual level of agricultural development. Second, we established the regional agricultural production advantage model to explore the potential of agricultural development. Then we established the WF-APA (water footprint-agricultural production advantage) gap index to illustrate agricultural types of each county. Additionally, in order to more directly explore the matching relationship between water footprint and economy, technology, environment and resources, taking 2017 as an example, we computed the imbalance index of water footprint versus above mentioned factors. Specifically, agricultural irrigation water, cultivated land area, agricultural labor productivity, consumption of chemical fertilizers, and total power of cultivated land agricultural machinery were included. Results indicated that:1) The index of water footprint showed a large instability from 2000 to 2017, showing a spatial distribution that the total water footprint of middle counties is higher than those of eastern and western counties. 2) Regional agricultural production advantage can be divided into five types:high, relatively high, middle, low, relatively low, and general decrease in 2017. 3) Regional agricultural production can be divided into three types, which are reasonable, over-dense and over-sparse. 4) The outside fairness of the water footprint for agricultural products was found to be relatively low, suggesting that Shawan and Wusu counties were the most prominent areas. In any case, the findings of research would assist policy makers in formulating reasonable agricultural policies to guarantee food-water security and at the same time to answer for regional sustainability.
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