Abstract:

On the basis of analyzing hazard-fo rmative mechanism and hazard-formative factors of railw ay flood disaster, model of calculating fatality of railw ay f lood disaster is discussed and established by apply ing g ray theo ry and symbolic statistics.During the study, the authors take 39-years (1959 ～ 1997)flood disaster data of Xinjiang Line of New Eurasian Continental Bridge as the t raining data.Firstly, by analyzing and dealing w ith the historical data, flood disaster frequency, f lood disaster density and periods of disruption are determined to be the main indexes to evaluate fatality of railw ay flood disaster of Xinjiang Line of New Eurasian Continental Bridge, and the w eighting of three indexes are 5 、3 、2 in turn on the basis of gray theory.Then, take the distance betw een grade three stations along railw ay as analysis unit, and on the basis of the interrelationships and the w eighting of each of three indexes, a model of evaluating the fatalness of railw ay f lood disaster is established.Lastly, the model established in this paper are applied into pract ice and calculate the fatality of the research uni ts of Xinjiang Line of New Eurasian Continental Bridge, and find that the result calculated is very close to the distribution condition of flood disaster along railway.

Key words: gray theory, flood disaster of railway, model of evaluation fatalness