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Predictions of the sunspot numbers using
synthesis information model

  • Lei Qin ,
  • Can Zhang ,
  • Huibin Jin
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  • 1 School of Information Science and Engineering ,Graduate University , Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China;2 State Key Laboratory of Information Security, Graduate University, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China;3 Chinese Academy of Sciences, Institute of Electronics, Beijing 100080, China

Received date: 1900-01-01

  Revised date: 1900-01-01

  Online published: 2008-01-15

Abstract

It’s usually considered to be practical and effective to predict the amplitude of solar cycle using statistical precursor methods based on the geomagnetic precursors, but it will appear biggish error in a certain cycle prediction by this method. Particularly, the error exceeds 30% in predicting the amplitude of the 23rd solar cycle, which we are now standing. This paper provides a synthesis prediction method based on multi-information. Computer simulation shows that the new method is more adaptive and stable, compared with the statistical precursor methods based on the geomagnetic precursors. In predicting the 23rd solar cycle amplitude, the average error is only 10%.

Cite this article

Lei Qin , Can Zhang , Huibin Jin . Predictions of the sunspot numbers using
synthesis information model
[J]. Journal of University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, 2008
, 25(1) : 69 -73 . DOI: 10.7523/j.issn.2095-6134.2008.1.009

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