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Emergy analysis and scenario prediction of Jilin eco-economic system
Received date: 2008-07-30
Revised date: 2009-03-02
Online published: 2009-07-15
Emergy analysis was usually used to evaluate eco-economic system without prediction ability. In view of this, after analyzing the trend of Jilin eco-economic system, scenario prediction model was established to forecast the emergy value of nonrenewable resources. The main results could be summarized as follows: (1) All emergy flows increased in various degrees, showing that development level of eco-economic system enhanced remarkably with the increasing environmental pressure; (2) 4 emergy efficiency indicators became worse, and the metabolic efficiency dropped to a certain extent; (3) Sustainable development ability declined steadily throughout the analysis period, indicating that economic growth was at the cost of excessive resource consumption with increase of environmental pressure; (4) The emergy value of nonrenewable resources would maintain an average annual growth rate of more than 10% in the following 4 years, and resources consumption as well as environmental pressure would further increase; (5) In the near future the key factor influencing emergy amount would be resources (excluding energy) whose effect on emergy was greater than that of energy, and it would be more and more important.
Key words： emergy analysis; scenario prediction; policy variables; Jilin province
LI Ming-Sheng , TONG Lian-Jun . Emergy analysis and scenario prediction of Jilin eco-economic system[J]. Journal of University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, 2009 , 26(4) : 458 -465 . DOI: 10.7523/j.issn.2095-6134.2009.4.005
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