Journal of University of Chinese Academy of Sciences >
Epidemiological Study of Association between Climate Determinants and Spread of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) in Beijing
Received date: 2004-07-01
Revised date: 2005-02-16
Online published: 2005-09-15
To determine the relat ionship between the spread of SARS and climate determinants, the correlations between 998 climate determinants and the clinically diagnosed SARS cases were investigated. Those significant determinants to the spread of SARS were further analyzed using multiple linear regression analysis. Significant correlations were found between the spread of SARS and seven climate determinants. The absolute values of correlation coeff icient (r) of the determinants are in the following orders: average relative humidity, temperature, average wind speed, average precipitat ion, average barometric pressure, average cloudiness, average temperature daily ranges. The spread of SARS is negatively associated with average relative humidity, temperature, average precipitation, average cloudiness, whereas was positively associated with average wind speed, average barometric pressure, average temperature daily range. Multiple linear regression was performed and by reference to the most correlated determinants, an equation Y = 2181692-01698X 630-21043X 716 + 21282X 921 (R2 =01847)was established to predict the risk of SARS spread and to set up an alert system. We concluded that there are significant correlations between the climate determinants and the spread of SARS. The most significant climate determinants are the average temperature and average relative humidity from the 13th to 17th days of pre-clinical diagnosis of SARS, and the average wind speed from the 9th to 13th days of pre-diagnosis. The most optimal climate for the spread of SARS is the period with the weather condit ions of the average temperature 1619 e (95% CI 1017~ 2311), the average relat ive humidity 5212% (3310~ 7114), and average wind speed 218m#s-1 (210~ 316).
Key words： association study; Beijing; climate; epidemics; severe acute respiratory syndrome
YUAN Jin-Song , YUN Hong-Min , LAN Wei , LIU Yan , YU Jie , LIU Xiao-Ping , JIA Shao-Wei , FANG Jia-Zhi , WANG Wei . Epidemiological Study of Association between Climate Determinants and Spread of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) in Beijing[J]. Journal of University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, 2005 , 22(5) : 579 -588 . DOI: 10.7523/j.issn.2095-6134.2005.5.008
[1] Liang WN,Mi J.Informat ion Branch,Joint Leadership Group of SARS Prevent ion and Control in Beijing.Epidemiological features of severe acuterespiratory syndrome in Beijing.Chin J Epidemi ol,2003,24 (12) : 1096~ 1099 (in Chinese with English abstract)
[2] Poveda G,Rojas W,Quinones ML,et al.Coupl ing between annual and ENSO timescales in the malaria-climate associat ion in Colombia.EnvironHealth Perspect,2001,109 (5) : 489~ 493
[3] Wen L,Xu DZ,Wang SQ,et al.Epidemic of malaria in Hainan province and modeling malaria incidence with meteorological parameters.Chin JDis Control Prev,2003,7 (6) : 520~ 524(in Chinese with English abst ract)
[4] Colwell RR.Global climate and infect ious disease: the cholera paradigm.Science,1996,274 (5295) : 2025~2031
[5] Yang YR.Analysis of relation between incidence rate of cholera and weather.Meteorol ogical Science and Technol ogy,2003,31 (6) : 400~ 401(inChinese with English abstract)
[6] Tan RM,Chen K,Tu CY.Study on association between incidence of cholera and weather factors.Chin J PublicHealth,2003,19 (4) : 416~ 415(in Chinese)
[7] Ward MP.Climatic factors associat edwith the prevalence of bluetongue virus inf ection of cattle herds inQueensland,Australia.Vet Rec,1994,134(16) : 407~ 410
[8] Bi P,Wu X,Zhang F,et al.Seasonal rainfal l variability,the incidence of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome,and prediction of the disease inlow-lying areas of China.Am J Epidemiol,1998,148 (3) : 276~ 281
[9] Singh RB,Hales S,de Wet N,et al.The influence of climate variat ion and change on diarrheal disease in the Pacific Islands.Environ HealthPerspect,2001,109 (2) : 155~ 159
[10] Tan RM,Chen K,Tu CY.Study on relationship between meteorological f actors and incidence of bacillary dysentery.Zhejiang Prev Med,2003,15(3) : 7~ 9 (in Chinese with Engl ish abstract)
[11] Li ZL,Zhou FX,Li SB,et al.Mathematical models for forecast of epizoot ic plague of spermophilus dauricus(×).Chin J Ctrl Endem Dis,2002,17 (3) : 129~ 131 (in Chinese with English abstract)
[12] Cristl AD,Azra CG,Gabriel ML,et al.Epidemiological determinant s of spread of causal agent of severe acute respiratory syndrome in Hong Kong.The L ancet.Published online May 7,2003.http:PPimage.thelancet.comPextrasP03art4453web
[13] Peng J,Hou JL,Guo YB,et al.Clinical characteristics of the severe acute respirat ory syndrome in Guangzhou.Chin J Inf ect Dis,2003,21 (2) :89~ 92 (in Chinese with Engl ish abstract)
[14] Wang M,Du L,Zhou DH,et al.Study on the epidemiology andmeasures for control on severe acute respiratory syndrome in Guangzhou city.ChinJ Epidemiol,2003,24 (5) : 353~ 357 (in Chinese with English abstract)
[1] 梁万年,米 杰.北京市防治非典联合领导小组信息组.北京市SARS 流行病学分析.中华流行病学杂志,2003,24 (12) : 1096~1099
[3] 温 亮,徐德忠,王善青,等.海南省疟疾发病情况及利用气象因子进行发病率拟合的研究.疾病控制杂志,2003,7 (6) : 520~ 524
[5] 阳燕蓉.霍乱发病率与气象因素关系的探讨.气象科技,2003,31(6) : 400~ 401
[6] 谈荣梅,陈 坤,屠春雨.气象因素变化与霍乱发病的相关性研究.中国公共卫生,2003,19(4) : 416~ 415
[10] 谈荣梅,陈 坤,屠春雨.气象因素与细菌性痢疾发病关系的探讨.浙江预防医学,2003,15(3) : 7~ 9
[11] 李仲来,周方孝,李书宝,等.达乌尔黄鼠鼠疫预测预报的数学模型(×).中国地方病防治杂志,2002,17(3) : 129~ 131
[13] 彭,侯金林,郭亚兵,等.广州地区严重急性呼吸道综合征的临床特点.中华传染病杂志,2003,21(2) : 89~ 92
[14] 王 鸣,杜 琳,周端华,等.广州市传染性非典型性肺炎流行病学及预防控制效果的初步研究.中华流行病学杂志,2003,24 (5) :353~ 357
/
| 〈 |
|
〉 |