Spatiotemporal dynamic monitoring and driving factor analysis of ecological carrying capacity in five Central Asian countries

LI Xu; JIAPAER Guli; YU Tao; YIN Hanmin; TU Haiyang

doi:10.7523/j.ucas.2021.0085

Journal of University of Chinese Academy of Sciences >

2023 , Vol. 40 >Issue 4: 474 - 485

DOI: https://doi.org/10.7523/j.ucas.2021.0085

Research Articles

Spatiotemporal dynamic monitoring and driving factor analysis of ecological carrying capacity in five Central Asian countries

LI Xu ,
JIAPAER Guli ,
YU Tao ,
YIN Hanmin ,
TU Haiyang

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1 State Key Laboratory of Dessert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China;
2 Central Asian Center for Ecology and Environmental Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China;
3 University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China

Received date: 2021-10-04

Revised date: 2021-12-31

Online published: 2021-12-31

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Abstract

The ecological environment in the arid and semi-arid zone of Central Asia is extremely fragile. The aggravation of human activities and unreasonable use of water resources cause the local ecological environment to continuously deteriorate. It is critical to study the ecological carrying capacity of the five Central Asian countries to realize the sustainable development of the region and to ensure the ecological security of the "silk road economic belt". Based on the characteristics of the ecological environment in Central Asia and remote sensing observation methods, this research selected 13 indicators from various aspects of the natural resource supply, ecological environment state and human social activities to establish a long-term monitoring index system of ecological carrying capacity in Central Asia. This research was conducted to reveal the spatiotemporal dynamic characteristics and driving factors of ecological carrying capacity in Central Asia from 2001 to 2019. The results show that the ecological carrying capacity of Central Asia increases from southwest to north and east. In Central Asia, 71.56% of the region's ecological carrying capacity was in a relatively stable condition; 23.93% showed an increasing trend and the farmland ecosystem has been significantly improved; and 4.51% showed a decreasing trend, wetland ecosystem has been significantly decreased. There were four abrupt changes in ecological carrying capacity that occurred in 2003, 2006, 2010 and 2016. The ecological carrying capacity of Central Asia was influenced by both human activities and climate change, drought is the main reason of abrupt changes and fluctuations in ecological carrying capacity, especially on rain-fed farmland and grassland ecosystems in north Central Asia. Human activities are the major driving force affecting the change of ecological carrying capacity in Central Asia, their influences are concentrated in the Aral Sea, Kazakh hills, Turgay depression and farming and oasis areas.

Key words： arid region of Central Asia; comprehensive index evaluation; analytic hierarchy process; ecological carrying capacity; residual analysis

Cite this article

LI Xu , JIAPAER Guli , YU Tao , YIN Hanmin , TU Haiyang . Spatiotemporal dynamic monitoring and driving factor analysis of ecological carrying capacity in five Central Asian countries[J]. Journal of University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, 2023 , 40(4) : 474 -485 . DOI: 10.7523/j.ucas.2021.0085

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