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2025 2025042

DOI: https://doi.org/10.7523/j.ucas.2025.042

Evolution and determinants of trade patterns between Xinjiang and the five Central Asian countries

  • ZHAO Yantong ,
  • DU Hongru ,
  • WANG Kun
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  • 1. Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China;
    2. College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China;
    3. Business School, University of Jinan, Jinan 250002, China

Received date: 2025-03-25

  Revised date: 2025-06-30

  Online published: 2025-07-07

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Abstract

With the advancement of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), economic cooperation between China and the five Central Asian countries has intensified. As the core area of the Silk Road Economic Belt, Xinjiang's economic engagement with Central Asia represents not only significant regional cooperation but also a crucial component for national energy security and geopolitical stability. This study employs customs import-export data to investigate the evolution of trade patterns and determinants between Xinjiang and the five Central Asian countries. The research reveals: (1) Despite Xinjiang's declining relative position in China's overall trade with Central Asia, its unique geographical advantages remain irreplaceable, continuing to provide critical support for regional economic cooperation; (2) Xinjiang's trade patterns with the five countries show distinct characteristics, with Kyrgyzstan demonstrating the highest trade integration and Tajikistan the fastest growth; (3) Export structures exhibit diversified stability with increasing proportions of high value-added products, while imports display resource-dependent singular structures significantly influenced by national strategy and Xinjiang's development; (4) Empirical analysis indicates that manufacturing technological complexity has a significant positive impact on Xinjiang's trade volume with Central Asian countries, with greater explanatory power than traditional indicators. The BRI implementation and industrial structure optimization have significantly promoted export development, while imports demonstrate evident substitution effects and are substantially influenced by the resource-oriented export structures of Central Asian countries. This study enriches the application of gravity models in regional trade research and provides theoretical foundation and practical implications for promoting high-quality development of economic cooperation between Xinjiang and Central Asia.

Key words： Xinjiang; five Central Asian countries; trade pattern; technological complexity; gravity model of trade

Cite this article

ZHAO Yantong , DU Hongru , WANG Kun . Evolution and determinants of trade patterns between Xinjiang and the five Central Asian countries[J]. Journal of University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, 2025 : 2025042 . DOI: 10.7523/j.ucas.2025.042

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