关键词: 动力机制, 洪水灾害, 混沌理论

Abstract:

With the change of global climate and the intensifying of human action, flood disaster has become more serious day after day, and affected development of economy and society greatly. Therefore, it is urgent to make clear the dynamic mechanism of flood disaster. Taking Ice-dammed lake outburst flood disaster in Tianshan mountains as an example, dynamic mechanism of flood disaster has been studied by using Chaotic theory. During study, some nonlinear features of flood disaster peak discharge, such as correlation dimension D2 and Kolomogorov entropy K, are analyzed based on the time-series of Huangshui channel outburst flood disaster in northern slope of Tianshan. The results show: time-series distribution of Huangshui channel outburst flood disaster has some characteristics of Chaos dynamic system, and the variation of the flood peak discharge is a definite low-dimension Chaotic attractor. The average length of Tp (Tp = 8 d) calculated, which shows the time of forecasting by this Chaotic dynamic system, is close to the reality.

Key words: dynamic mechanism, flood disaster, Chaotic theory