关键词: 空气质量, 耦合模式系统, 数值预报, 预报准确率

Abstract:

In order to make business forecast on urban air quality, a new city-scale coupling model system between meteorology and air quality has been developed recently. The system was used to do a lot of experimental studies on practical forecast of air quality for 24 hours in Chongqing, Tianjin, Guangzhou, and Jinan cities.Comparisons between forecasted and field measured concentration-meteorology fields show that ensemble mean of ratios between forecasted and measured concentrations (SO₂, NO₂, and PM₁₀) and wind speed are 1.02±0.36 and 1.08±0.38; probability that difference between forecasted and measured wind direction is less than 67.5° can exceed 80%; probability that difference between forecasted and measured temperature is less than 1.0°C can exceed 75%; forecasting accuracy of rainfall amount for 24 hours is more than 80%; forecasting accuracy of daily mean API can exceed 80%; there are good agreements between forecasted and measured concentration-meteorology fields.

Key words: air quality, coupling model system, numerical forecast, forecasting accuracy