1984—2021年中国高温干旱复合事件特征及标准化经济损失评估*

doi:10.7523/j.ucas.2025.005

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 干旱和高温是常发的灾害性气候事件,可引发不同程度的经济损失。随着社会经济发展,其致灾性与社会经济条件叠加放大了灾害损失。本研究聚焦1984—2021年中国高温干旱复合事件特征及经济损失,基于标准化方法构建了灾害损失率与干旱强度关系模型,分离了社会经济发展对干旱经济损失的影响,为干旱损失预估和区域防灾策略提供科学依据。结果显示,1984—1990年为干旱高发期,西南、黄淮中部和长江上游为主要干旱中心,经济损失尤为显著。原始损失随时间增加,而剔除人口和经济增长影响后的损失呈下降趋势,且与干旱时空分布高度一致。人口增长和经济发展是中国干旱经济损失显著增加的主要驱动因素,标准化处理能更准确反映干旱事件实际影响。基于此,本文构建了“干旱强度-损失率”模型,以更准确地刻画干旱自然变化与经济损失的关联。

关键词: 高温干旱复合事件, 干旱, 直接经济损失, 标准化方法, 中国

Abstract: As socioeconomic development progresses, the interaction between climatic hazards and socioeconomic conditions amplifies these losses. This study focuses on the characteristics and economic impacts of compound drought-heatwave events in China from 1984 to 2021. Using a standardized methodology, we developed a "loss ratio-drought intensity" model to isolate the influence of socioeconomic development on drought-related economic losses, providing a scientific basis for loss estimation and regional disaster prevention strategies. The results indicate that 1984 to 1990 was a period of high drought frequency, with the primary drought centers located in Southwest China, the central Huang-Huai region, and the upper Yangtze River, where economic losses were particularly significant. While raw economic losses increased over time, losses adjusted for population and economic growth showed a declining trend, closely aligning with the spatiotemporal distribution of droughts. Population growth and economic development are identified as the main drivers of the significant increase in China's drought-related economic losses. The standardization approach effectively reveals the actual impacts of drought events. Based on these findings, this study constructed a "drought intensity-loss ratio" model to better characterize the relationship between natural drought variability and economic losses, offering a robust framework for accurately assessing drought impacts and supporting disaster mitigation strategies.

Key words: high-temperature drought compound events, drought, direct economic loss, normalization method, China

中图分类号:

P429

周昱, 华丽娟, 钟霖浩, 杨洋, 龚昭荟, 周宇欣. 1984—2021年中国高温干旱复合事件特征及标准化经济损失评估^*[J]. 中国科学院大学学报, DOI: 10.7523/j.ucas.2025.005.

ZHOU Yu, HUA Lijuan, ZHONG Linhao, YANG Yang, GONG Zhaohui, ZHOU Yuxin. The characteristics of compound high temperature and drought events and the assessment of standardized economic losses across China during 1984—2021[J]. Journal of University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, DOI: 10.7523/j.ucas.2025.005.

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1984—2021年中国高温干旱复合事件特征及标准化经济损失评估^*

The characteristics of compound high temperature and drought events and the assessment of standardized economic losses across China during 1984—2021

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