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›› 2015, Vol. 32 ›› Issue (3): 333-341.DOI: 10.7523/j.issn.2095-6134.2015.03.007

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Analysis of the relationship between population structure and CO2 emissions in Xinjiang based on Granger causality and the ridge regression

HUO Jinwei1,2, YANG Degang1, WANG Fei1,2, YANG Fan1,2, ZHANG Wenbiao1,2   

  1. 1. Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China;
    2. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
  • Received:2014-04-16 Revised:2014-07-22 Online:2015-05-15

Abstract:

With the data of CO2 emissions and population of Xinjiang from 1958 to 2011, we make empirical analysis on the causal relationship between the change in population factors and the CO2 emissions and on the acting force by using Granger causality test and the ridge regression model. The results are shown in the following. 1)Before the reform and opening up, the bidirectional causal relationship presents between all the relative indexes of population and CO2 emissions. However since the reform and opening up, the causal relationship between the countryside inhabitant cousumption and CO2 emissions disappears. 2)The promoting function of population factors on CO2 emissions is rather different in different stages of development. With the implementation of the reform and opening-up policy, the households and consumption become the main driving factos in place of employment structure and population gross.

Key words: population structure, number of households, granger causality, ridge regression

CLC Number: