Error analysis concerning 2006-2017 Central Asia precipitation estimation based on CMIP5 model

doi:10.7523/j.issn.2095-6134.2021.03.006

Abstract

Abstract: The 24-model simulated data of the coupled model intercomparison project phase 5 (CMIP5) are used to compare with the 2006-2017 monthly precipitation grid data provided by the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) of the University of East Anglia from UK, and the evaluation of the precipitation estimation error concerning Central Asia under the multi-model ensemble is conducted through analysis of error spatial distribution, percentage errors, standard deviations and error trends. The results show that the model-ensemble precipitation is overestimated in most part of Central Asia, and it is obvious in the south-east Pamirs and West Tianshan Mountains; in the summer-half year, it is obviously overestimated in some regions of the south-eastern and southern Central Asia, but underestimated in north-east Central Asia; while in the winter-half year, it is overestimated in most part of Central Asia, and the precipitation is underestimated in the eastern Balkhash Lake and some regions in western Pamirs Plateau, with both the estimations errors are not obvious. Meanwhile, it is discovered that, the standard deviations in western and north-western parts of Central Asia among the annual, summer-half year and winter-half year are less than those in eastern and south-eastern parts of Central Asia; and the annual, summer-half year and winter-half year precipitation errors concerning most regions in Central Asia especially its middle part all show a declining trend; the spatial distribution of precipitation estimation error in El Nino and La Nina years determined the characteristics of the multi-year average estimated error distribution. The different error analysis shows that there would be severe larger uncertainty if estimating Central Asia precipitation directly using the CMIP5 outputs, and such uncertainty is most probably the result of the model's inherent problems, such as the defective descriptions of resolution ratio and topographic treatment, cumulus convection parameterization scheme, physical process of precipitation.

Key words: CMIP5, precipitation in Central Asia, multi-model ensemble, error analysis

CLC Number:

K903

HUANG Fang, GAN Miao, YU Yang, TA Zhijie, ZHANG Haiyan, PI Yuanyue, SUN Lingxiao, YU Ruide. Error analysis concerning 2006-2017 Central Asia precipitation estimation based on CMIP5 model[J]. Journal of University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, 2021, 38(3): 333-340.

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