Basin ecological restoration zoning and land use simulation evaluation based on multivariate coupling model: a case study of Dianchi Lake Basin

doi:10.7523/j.ucas.2023.039

Abstract

Abstract: Scientific delineation of watershed ecological restoration zones and simulation of land use scenarios in each zone can provide important support for the design of land space-related planning schemes such as watershed ecological restoration, ecological risk avoidance and land use index formulation. Taking the Dianchi Lake Basin as an example, this paper identified the ecological restoration zones of the Dianchi Lake Basin and conducted land use simulations under different scenarios based on the ecosystem service value and ecological risk calculation model, PLUS model, GIS analysis and other methods. The results showed that: 1) From 2000 to 2020, the ecosystem service value in the Dianchi Lake Basin decreased from 20.614 billion RMB to 19.271 billion RMB, and the proportion of areas with high ecological risk and above increased from 6.24% to 19.30%; 2) The spatial distribution of ecological restoration zones in the Dianchi Lake Basin was a circular structure. From the center of Lake Dianchi to the outside, ecological restoration zones were divided into 4 categories: the core area of ecological restoration, the important area of ecological restoration, the green development area and the ecological restoration and conservation area. The occupied area was 362.09, 109.99, 791.92, and 1 590.89 km², respectively; 3) Under the natural development scenario in 2030, the construction land in the Dianchi Lake Basin would increase by 189.92 km²; under the ecological restoration scenario, the construction land would increase by 53.75 km², and the urban expansion rate would slow down. The ecological restoration scenario had an additional ecosystem service value of 434 million RMB in the Dianchi Lake Basin compared with the natural development scenario.

Key words: ecological restoration zoning, land use simulation assessment, ecosystem service value assessment, ecological risk assessment, Dianchi Lake Basin

CLC Number:

K902

WANG Jiaheng, YAN Wei, DUAN Xuejun, DUAN Yanyan, LI Zhuona, ZOU Hui. Basin ecological restoration zoning and land use simulation evaluation based on multivariate coupling model: a case study of Dianchi Lake Basin[J]. Journal of University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, 2025, 42(1): 61-73.

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