Differentiated evolution of basic public service supply levels and influencing factors in China's population-shrinking areas

doi:10.7523/j.ucas.2026.012

Abstract

Abstract: As the trend of population growth and decline across regions in China becomes increasingly pronounced, the traditional "growth-oriented" model of basic public service supply is undergoing profound adjustments. Based on identifying population-shrinking areas in China from 2000 to 2020, this study constructs an index system for basic public service supply, measures its levels, and analyzes its differentiated evolution characteristics and influencing factors. The results show that: ①The number of prefecture-level administrative regions experiencing population shrinkage in China has increased, the degree of population shrinkage has deepened, and the pattern roughly shows higher levels in the north and lower levels in the south. ②The overall level of basic public service supply in population-shrinking areas has improved, but the increase in service levels varies across regions. Northeastern population-shrinking areas exhibit the most significant differentiation in the increase of basic public service supply levels, and the trend of coordinated improvement across different dimensions of basic public service supply has weakened. ③Economic and demographic factors continue to exert influence on the differentiated evolution of basic public service supply levels in population-shrinking areas, while the influence of spatial factors has diminished. The responsiveness of local governments to population changes has started to affect the differentiation of basic public service supply levels. Based on the patterns of stagnation and improvement in basic public service supply in population-shrinking areas, this study proposes corresponding governance strategies.

Key words: population shrinkage, basic public service supply, index system, measurement method, spatial and temporal differentiation, influencing factors

CLC Number:

F127
D630

YUAN Wei, LI He. Differentiated evolution of basic public service supply levels and influencing factors in China's population-shrinking areas[J]. Journal of University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, DOI: 10.7523/j.ucas.2026.012.

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