Abstract:

Pearson test is applied to the evaluation of the annual prediction of seismicity tendency carried out inChina from 1990 to 2002. Considering the regional difference of seismicity and level of seismological Pgeophysical monitoring, we divide the Chinese mainland into four sub regions : the east, the west, the Yunnan Sichuan region,and Tibetan plateau, in which Tibetan plateau is with extremely-low monitoring capability and is not considered inthe evaluation. It is observed that the three regions, the east, the west, and the Yunnan Sichuan region, have different characteristics. The average probability gain and confidence level for the east is significantly higher than thoseof the west and the Yunnan Sichuan region. The result also shows that in the annual prediction of seismicity tendency carried out at present, the statistics of seismic activity, such as the background probability of earthquakes, playsthe most important role.

Key words: Pearson χ² test, earthquake prediction, annual prediction of seismicity tendency