The spatiotemporal variation of vegetation and its influencing factors in the Hulunbuir typical steppe based on MODIS data

doi:10.7523/j.ucas.2025.004

Abstract

Abstract: As a green ecological barrier in northern China, changes in the ecological environment of Hulunbuir steppe have a profound impact on both the regional ecological balance and, to some extent, the broader ecological equilibrium of the entire country. Based on the long-term MOD13Q1 vegetation index dataset and meteorological data, this study developed a dynamically adaptable vegetation cover index, gsNDVI, which is sensitive to the active vegetation season. The vegetation change trend and future development of the Hulunbuir typical steppe from 2000 to 2022 were analyzed using the Theil-Sen regression, the Mann-Kendall method, and the Hurst exponent. Additionally, partial correlation analysis was employed to investigate the impact of climate factors on vegetation change. The results show that the multi-year average gsNDVI value for the study area is 0.39, with a spatial distribution characterized by higher values in the northeast and lower values in the southwest. Overall, the mean gsNDVI value exhibits a slow growth trend, though periodic fluctuations are observed. Vegetation coverage has increased in most areas, though noticeable degradation is evident in urban areas. The partial correlation analysis results indicate that precipitation is the primary factor influencing vegetation cover change in the study area, with grasslands being the most sensitive to changes in precipitation. Furthermore, based on the combined results of trend analysis and the Hurst exponent, the vegetation trend in certain areas of Hulunbuir is expected to reverse in the future, which may pose significant challenges to ecological and environmental protection in the region.

Key words: vegetation change, MODIS, climate factors, future trends, Hulunbuir

CLC Number:

TP75

LI Kexin, TANG Hairong, ZHANG Peng. The spatiotemporal variation of vegetation and its influencing factors in the Hulunbuir typical steppe based on MODIS data[J]. Journal of University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, DOI: 10.7523/j.ucas.2025.004.

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