The characteristics of compound high temperature and drought events and the assessment of standardized economic losses across China during 1984—2021

doi:10.7523/j.ucas.2025.005

Abstract

Abstract: As socioeconomic development progresses, the interaction between climatic hazards and socioeconomic conditions amplifies these losses. This study focuses on the characteristics and economic impacts of compound drought-heatwave events in China from 1984 to 2021. Using a standardized methodology, we developed a "loss ratio-drought intensity" model to isolate the influence of socioeconomic development on drought-related economic losses, providing a scientific basis for loss estimation and regional disaster prevention strategies. The results indicate that 1984 to 1990 was a period of high drought frequency, with the primary drought centers located in Southwest China, the central Huang-Huai region, and the upper Yangtze River, where economic losses were particularly significant. While raw economic losses increased over time, losses adjusted for population and economic growth showed a declining trend, closely aligning with the spatiotemporal distribution of droughts. Population growth and economic development are identified as the main drivers of the significant increase in China's drought-related economic losses. The standardization approach effectively reveals the actual impacts of drought events. Based on these findings, this study constructed a "drought intensity-loss ratio" model to better characterize the relationship between natural drought variability and economic losses, offering a robust framework for accurately assessing drought impacts and supporting disaster mitigation strategies.

Key words: high-temperature drought compound events, drought, direct economic loss, normalization method, China

CLC Number:

P429

ZHOU Yu, HUA Lijuan, ZHONG Linhao, YANG Yang, GONG Zhaohui, ZHOU Yuxin. The characteristics of compound high temperature and drought events and the assessment of standardized economic losses across China during 1984—2021[J]. Journal of University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, DOI: 10.7523/j.ucas.2025.005.

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