中亚5国生态承载力时空动态监测与驱动因素分析

doi:10.7523/j.ucas.2021.0085

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 中亚干旱半干旱地区生态环境极其脆弱，研究中亚5国生态承载力，对实现区域可持续发展，保障“丝绸之路经济带”生态安全具有重要意义。针对中亚5国生态环境特征，从自然资源补给、生态环境状态和人类活动3个方面建立评价指标体系，构建像元尺度的生态承载力指数，分析中亚5国2001—2019年生态承载力时空动态特征及驱动因素。结果表明，中亚生态承载力由西南向北部和东部递增；71.56%的地区生态承载力处于相对稳定状态，23.93%的地区呈提升趋势，4.51%的地区呈下降趋势，其中湿地生态系统下降较为明显；生态承载力在2003、2006、2010和2016年发生4次突变，干旱是引起生态承载力突变和波动的主要原因，尤其对中亚北部雨养农田和草地生态系统影响较大；人类活动对中亚生态承载力变化的影响较大，其影响集中在咸海、哈萨克丘陵、图尔盖洼地及耕作区和绿洲区。

关键词: 中亚干旱区, 综合指标评价, 层次分析法, 生态承载力, 残差分析

Abstract: The ecological environment in the arid and semi-arid zone of Central Asia is extremely fragile. The aggravation of human activities and unreasonable use of water resources cause the local ecological environment to continuously deteriorate. It is critical to study the ecological carrying capacity of the five Central Asian countries to realize the sustainable development of the region and to ensure the ecological security of the "silk road economic belt". Based on the characteristics of the ecological environment in Central Asia and remote sensing observation methods, this research selected 13 indicators from various aspects of the natural resource supply, ecological environment state and human social activities to establish a long-term monitoring index system of ecological carrying capacity in Central Asia. This research was conducted to reveal the spatiotemporal dynamic characteristics and driving factors of ecological carrying capacity in Central Asia from 2001 to 2019. The results show that the ecological carrying capacity of Central Asia increases from southwest to north and east. In Central Asia, 71.56% of the region's ecological carrying capacity was in a relatively stable condition; 23.93% showed an increasing trend and the farmland ecosystem has been significantly improved; and 4.51% showed a decreasing trend, wetland ecosystem has been significantly decreased. There were four abrupt changes in ecological carrying capacity that occurred in 2003, 2006, 2010 and 2016. The ecological carrying capacity of Central Asia was influenced by both human activities and climate change, drought is the main reason of abrupt changes and fluctuations in ecological carrying capacity, especially on rain-fed farmland and grassland ecosystems in north Central Asia. Human activities are the major driving force affecting the change of ecological carrying capacity in Central Asia, their influences are concentrated in the Aral Sea, Kazakh hills, Turgay depression and farming and oasis areas.

Key words: arid region of Central Asia, comprehensive index evaluation, analytic hierarchy process, ecological carrying capacity, residual analysis

中图分类号:

P964
X87

李旭, 古丽·加帕尔, 于涛, 尹瀚民, 涂海洋. 中亚5国生态承载力时空动态监测与驱动因素分析[J]. 中国科学院大学学报, 2023, 40(4): 474-485.

LI Xu, JIAPAER Guli, YU Tao, YIN Hanmin, TU Haiyang. Spatiotemporal dynamic monitoring and driving factor analysis of ecological carrying capacity in five Central Asian countries[J]. Journal of University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, 2023, 40(4): 474-485.

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