欠发达民族山区生态足迹与生态承载力动态变化及预测分析——以四川凉山彝族自治州为例

doi:10.7523/j.issn.2095-6134.2014.05.010

中国科学院大学学报 ›› 2014, Vol. 31 ›› Issue (5): 647-653.DOI: 10.7523/j.issn.2095-6134.2014.05.010

欠发达民族山区生态足迹与生态承载力动态变化及预测分析——以四川凉山彝族自治州为例

刘运伟^1,2,3, 何仁伟^1,2,3, 赵亚玲²

1. 中国科学院成都山地灾害与环境研究所, 成都 610041;
2. 西昌学院农业科学院, 四川西昌 615013;
3. 中国科学院大学, 北京 100049

收稿日期:2013-09-02 修回日期:2014-02-21 发布日期:2014-09-15
通讯作者: 何仁伟，E-mail：herenweiyan@163.com
基金资助:
中国科学院知识创新工程重要方向项目（KZCX2-YW-333-2）、教育部人文社会科学青年基金（13YJCZH050）和四川省教育厅科研项目（12ZB127）资助

Dynamic analysis and forecast of ecological footprints and ecological capacity in Liangshan Yi autonomous prefecture in Sichuan province

LIU Yunwei^1,2,3, HE Renwei^1,2,3, ZHAO Yaling²

1. Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Chengdu 610041, China;
2. School of Agricultural Sciences of Xichang College, Xichang 615013, Sichuan, China;
3. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China

Received:2013-09-02 Revised:2014-02-21 Published:2014-09-15

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

利用生态足迹模型计算凉山州2004—2011年的生态足迹和生态承载力，运用发展预测模型对凉山州的生态足迹和生态承载力进行预测.结果表明，2004—2011年凉山州人均生态足迹由2004年的0.506 66 hm²，增加到2011年的0.593 46 hm²；人均生态承载力从2004年的 0.873 43 hm²，降低到2011年的0.717 70 hm²；生态盈余值不断降低.2015年，凉山州将由生态盈余变为生态赤字，且生态赤字会不断增大.探讨了凉山州实现可持续发展的努力方向.

关键词: 生态足迹, 生态承载力, 生态盈余, 凉山州

Abstract:

Ecological footprints (EF) and ecological capacity (EC) in Liangshan prefecture from 2004 to 2011 were studied by using the ecological footprints model. Ecological footprints and ecological capacity in Liangshan prefecture in future were predicted by using the growth prediction model. Results showed that in Liangshan prefecture the per capital EF increased from 0.506 66 hm² of 2004 to 0.593 46 hm² of 2011; the per capital EC increased from 0.873 43 hm² of 2004 to 0.717 70 hm² of 2011; and the ecological surplus constantly decreased. The ecological surplus will turn into ecological deficit in 2015, and the ecological deficit will constantly grow. The efforts for realization of sustainable development in Liangshan prefecture are discussed.

Key words: ecological footprint, ecological capacity, ecological surplus, Liangshan prefecture

中图分类号:

刘运伟, 何仁伟, 赵亚玲. 欠发达民族山区生态足迹与生态承载力动态变化及预测分析——以四川凉山彝族自治州为例[J]. 中国科学院大学学报, 2014, 31(5): 647-653.

LIU Yunwei, HE Renwei, ZHAO Yaling. Dynamic analysis and forecast of ecological footprints and ecological capacity in Liangshan Yi autonomous prefecture in Sichuan province[J]. , 2014, 31(5): 647-653.

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欠发达民族山区生态足迹与生态承载力动态变化及预测分析——以四川凉山彝族自治州为例

Dynamic analysis and forecast of ecological footprints and ecological capacity in Liangshan Yi autonomous prefecture in Sichuan province

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