Experimental Study of Numerical Forecast on Urban Air Quality

doi:10.7523/j.issn.2095-6134.2003.2.003

›› 2003, Vol. 20 ›› Issue (2): 146-154.DOI: 10.7523/j.issn.2095-6134.2003.2.003

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Experimental Study of Numerical Forecast on Urban Air Quality

Lei Yuan^1,2, Wang Ying², Lei Xiaoen³

1. Miroelectronic Research and Development Center, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China;
2. Graduate Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100039, China;
3. Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China

Received:2002-03-15 Revised:2002-07-10 Online:2003-03-10

Abstract

Abstract:

In order to make business forecast on urban air quality, a new city-scale coupling model system between meteorology and air quality has been developed recently. The system was used to do a lot of experimental studies on practical forecast of air quality for 24 hours in Chongqing, Tianjin, Guangzhou, and Jinan cities.Comparisons between forecasted and field measured concentration-meteorology fields show that ensemble mean of ratios between forecasted and measured concentrations (SO₂, NO₂, and PM₁₀) and wind speed are 1.02±0.36 and 1.08±0.38; probability that difference between forecasted and measured wind direction is less than 67.5° can exceed 80%; probability that difference between forecasted and measured temperature is less than 1.0°C can exceed 75%; forecasting accuracy of rainfall amount for 24 hours is more than 80%; forecasting accuracy of daily mean API can exceed 80%; there are good agreements between forecasted and measured concentration-meteorology fields.

Key words: air quality, coupling model system, numerical forecast, forecasting accuracy

CLC Number:

P456.7

Lei Yuan, Wang Ying, Lei Xiaoen. Experimental Study of Numerical Forecast on Urban Air Quality[J]. , 2003, 20(2): 146-154.

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Experimental Study of Numerical Forecast on Urban Air Quality

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