Epidemiological Study of Association between Climate Determinants and Spread of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) in Beijing

doi:10.7523/j.issn.2095-6134.2005.5.008

Abstract

Abstract:

To determine the relat ionship between the spread of SARS and climate determinants, the correlations between 998 climate determinants and the clinically diagnosed SARS cases were investigated. Those significant determinants to the spread of SARS were further analyzed using multiple linear regression analysis. Significant correlations were found between the spread of SARS and seven climate determinants. The absolute values of correlation coeff icient (r) of the determinants are in the following orders: average relative humidity, temperature, average wind speed, average precipitat ion, average barometric pressure, average cloudiness, average temperature daily ranges. The spread of SARS is negatively associated with average relative humidity, temperature, average precipitation, average cloudiness, whereas was positively associated with average wind speed, average barometric pressure, average temperature daily range. Multiple linear regression was performed and by reference to the most correlated determinants, an equation Y = 2181692-01698X ₆₃₀-21043X ₇₁₆ + 21282X ₉₂₁ (R² =01847)was established to predict the risk of SARS spread and to set up an alert system. We concluded that there are significant correlations between the climate determinants and the spread of SARS. The most significant climate determinants are the average temperature and average relative humidity from the 13^th to 17^th days of pre-clinical diagnosis of SARS, and the average wind speed from the 9^th to 13^th days of pre-diagnosis. The most optimal climate for the spread of SARS is the period with the weather condit ions of the average temperature 1619 e (95% CI 1017~ 2311), the average relat ive humidity 5212% (3310~ 7114), and average wind speed 218m#s-¹ (210~ 316).

Key words: association study, Beijing, climate, epidemics, severe acute respiratory syndrome

CLC Number:

YUAN Jin-Song, YUN Hong-Min, LAN Wei, LIU Yan, YU Jie, LIU Xiao-Ping, JIA Shao-Wei, FANG Jia-Zhi, WANG Wei. Epidemiological Study of Association between Climate Determinants and Spread of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) in Beijing[J]. , 2005, 22(5): 579-588.

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