关键词: 积云对流, 参数化方案, 数值模拟, 旱涝预测

Abstract:

The NCC T63L20 model of the National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration is employed to simulate the summer (June-August) flood during the characteristic years. This model utilizes Kuo type parameterized scheme and Gregory parameterized scheme respectively. The simulations show that the Gregory parameterized scheme, which is still used in the United Kingdom Meteorological Office routine model, simulates more reasonable rainfall area amount and distribution compared to the Kuo type scheme. Moreover, the Gregory scheme better simulates the rainfall amount than the Kuo type scheme. On the whole, the Gregory scheme provides a good simulation of the main features of the seasonal precipitation and general circulation in China, although the simulated result still exhibits some departures from the observations and the scheme needs to be improved further.

Key words: cumulus convection, parameterized scheme, numerical simulation, forecast of flood and drought