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中国科学院大学学报 ›› 2020, Vol. 37 ›› Issue (3): 308-316.DOI: 10.7523/j.issn.2095-6134.2020.03.003

• 环境科学与地理学 • 上一篇    下一篇

2001—2017年尼泊尔中部地区滑坡变化及其影响因素

孙国庆1,2, 陈方1,2,3, 于博1, 王宁1,2   

  1. 1. 中国科学院遥感与数字地球研究所 中国科学院数字地球重点实验室, 北京 100094;
    2. 中国科学院大学, 北京 100049;
    3. 海南省地球观测重点实验室, 海南 三亚 572029
  • 收稿日期:2018-12-29 修回日期:2019-03-05 发布日期:2020-05-15
  • 通讯作者: 陈方
  • 基金资助:
    中国科学院国际合作局对外合作重点项目(131551KYSB20160002,131211KYSB20170046)、国家自然科学基金(41871345,41601451)和国家自然科学基金国际合作项目(41661144037)资助

Landslide change and its influence factors in central Nepal from 2001 to 2017

SUN Guoqing1,2, CHEN Fang1,2,3, YU Bo1, WANG Ning1,2   

  1. 1. Key Laboratory of Digital Earth Science of CAS, Institute of Remote Sensing and Digital Earth, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100094, China;
    2. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China;
    3. Hainan Key Laboratory of Earth Observation, Sanya 572029, Hainan, China
  • Received:2018-12-29 Revised:2019-03-05 Published:2020-05-15

摘要: 滑坡是造成尼泊尔巨大经济损失和人员伤亡的主要地质灾害。目前,遥感方法对滑坡信息的识别、提取和监测具有巨大的潜力。基于随机森林模型的平均不纯度减少算法,选用NDBI、MNDWI、NDVI和红波段4个参数对Landsat遥感数据进行滑坡信息的初提取,同时借助目视解译得到滑坡的精提取结果。采用数据格网的方法将研究区划分为0.05°×0.05°的滑坡格网,并在不同土地覆盖类型中,对滑坡与降雨和温度进行偏相关分析。研究表明:1)尼泊尔中部地区的滑坡主要分布在海拔1 000~2 500 m,坡度20°~40°的范围内;2)相比其他土地覆盖类型,林地中滑坡数目与降雨的偏相关系数为0.671 5,而在草地中滑坡数目与温度的偏相关性最强,其偏相关系数为0.436 1;3)研究区片麻岩、页岩分布广泛,加之地震、断裂带、人类活动的影响,破坏边坡的稳定性,极易造成滑坡灾害。

关键词: 滑坡, 随机森林, 偏相关分析

Abstract: Landslide is one of the main geological disasters which cause huge economic losses and casualties in Nepal. Remote sensing provides great potential to identify, extract, and monitor landslide information. Based on the average impurity reduction algorithm of random forest model, this study uses indices including NDBI, MNDWI, NDVI, and red band from Landsat images to extract landslide information. Further extraction of landslide information is obtained by visual interpretation. In this study, data grid method is used to divide the study area into 0.05°×0.05° grids. Based on this method, the distribution of landslides and correlation and partial correlation of landslides with rainfall and temperature are analyzed for different types of land cover. The results are shown as follows. of research show that:1) The landslides in central Nepal are mainly distributed at elevation between 1 000 and 2 500 m and at the slope gradient between 20° and 40°. 2) Compared with other types of land cover, the correlation coefficient between the number of landslides and the rainfall is 0.671 5 in forest land, while the number of landslides has the strongest partial correlation with temperature in grassland and the coefficient is 0.436 1. 3) The extensive distributions of gneiss and slate, together with earthquake, the fault zone, and the human activities, are destroying the stability of the slope and exposing the study area to be highly prone to landslide disasters.

Key words: landslides, random forests, partial correlation analysis

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