关键词: 经济-资源-环境系统, 系统动力学, 耦合协调度, 多情景模拟, 黄河三角洲

Abstract: The coordinated development of regional economy-resource-environment system (ERE) is a crucial aspect of achieving the sustainable development goals. Taking Binzhou City in Shandong Province, a typical city in the Yellow River Delta, as an example, this paper constructs a coupling coordination degree model and examines the coupled and coordinated development of its ERE system from 2000 to 2020. Furthermore, a system dynamics (SD) model of Binzhou City’s ERE is constructed based on 71 indicators, through which causal feedback relationships and flows among subsystems are illustrated. Four scenarios are set for simulation as follows: current trend continuing mode, secondary industry leading mode, resource and environment prioritizing mode, and system coordinated mode. The results show that: 1) Over the past 20 years, the level of coupled and coordinated development in Binzhou City has been increasing year by year, and the type of coupled and coordinated development has gradually transitioned from an unbalanced state to a well-coordinated state, but there is still instability in the ERE; 2) Through SD parameter calculation and multi-scenario simulation analysis of Binzhou City’s ERE, it is pointed out that continuing the current development model cannot achieve high-quality sustainable development in Binzhou City. Therefore, a coordinated and stable development model, which takes economic, resource, and environmental benefits into account, is suggested as the relatively optimal solution for Binzhou City to achieve sustainable development in the long run.

Key words: economy-resource-environment system, system dynamics, coupling and coordination, multi-scenario simulation, Yellow River Delta