Simulation and prediction of urban heat island in Haikou City based on CA-Markov model

doi:10.7523/j.ucas.2021.0006

Abstract

Abstract: With rapid development of urbanization, great changes of surface coverage have intensified urban heat island effect. Using Landsat data, we analyzed the spatial variation of urban heat island in Haikou City, and CA-Markov model was applied to simulate and predict the trending of spatial distribution characteristics of the urban heat island. Moreover, we constructed a regression model between the urban heat island and the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and normalized difference built-up index (NDBI). The results show that: 1) By using the CA-Markov model to simulate and predict the distribution of thermal environment in Haikou in 2016, the average error of each urban heat island intensity level was small, and the Kappa coefficient was 80.49%. The simulation accuracy was high, and the thermal environment distribution of Haikou in 2024 was obtained. 2) From 2000 to 2016, the heat island effect in Haikou became increasingly obvious, mainly extending along the Qiongzhou Strait, the west bank of the Nandu River, and around the high-speed rail. The extent of the intense heat island has increased by 11.60 km², and the extent of the heat island has decreased by 2.26 km² and remained roughly unchanged. The extent of the green island has increased by 38.64 km², which was the largest change in the urban heat island intensity in 16 years. It is predicted that the distribution of urban heat island intensity in 2024 will move toward the southeast direction. 3) In the multiple linear regression analysis, every increase of 0.1 in the NDVI index will reduce the difference in surface temperature between urban and rural areas by 0.22-0.45 ℃. And every 0.1 increase in NDBI index will cause a temperature difference of 0.20-1.42 ℃ in urban and rural areas. The results can provide scientific basis and reference for alleviating urban heat island effect and planning the future development direction of the cities.

Key words: urban heat island effect, CA-Markov model, prediction, multiple linear regression

CLC Number:

TP79

WANG Zi, MENG Qingyan, ZHANG Linlin, HU Die, YANG Tianliang. Simulation and prediction of urban heat island in Haikou City based on CA-Markov model[J]. Journal of University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, 2022, 39(6): 742-753.

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